Monthly Archives: October 2011
Despite the dodgy name change, discussed in my Saturday Shambles post , I am really beginning to think Little Mix could hit the Top 3 and maybe, just maybe, I know this is utterly crazy, but just maybe… win it.
The VT’s over the last few weeks have all done superb jobs in making the girls relatable. As I discussed here, by not making them tarty sluts who the Daily Star want all over the front page for a couple of cheap weeks, before they are ditched because no one likes them;producers have pulled off a very difficult act of making them accessible.
They’re very modern and I think the underdog thing, which one letter in the postbag will discuss later this week, could work in these girls’ favour. They haven’t had any line up changes, they’re not all slim busty beauties and some of them can rap, some can sing and they can learn a dance routine.
I just wonder.
Just wonder. At 14-1 might be worth a little punt (although you could have got them at 75’s – or even in my case a bit at 90-1).
I would definitely consider them for the top 3.
Am I crackers? Let me know either in the comments or Contact Me here.
So once again, Betsfactor calls it correctly and nets delighted punters TREBLE their cash. Overall, we’re up 3.5 points at the moment, and if you hedge the Little Mix bet now, you would be over SEVEN TIMES up.
A few things to note:
– Misha would become the first person in X Factor ever to be in the bottom two at any point in the show, to go on and win it. No winner has EVER been in the bottom two. She’s ruled out in my book! I wasn’t overly surprised, you can read my thoughts in the live blog here.
– Little Mix’s odds continue to slide – now 14/1 to win. We tipped them at 75/1, I got them as high as 90/1. As I will suggest later this week, 14/1 is still a reasonable price – I’m wondering if they have a chance…. I kind of think they do!
– Sophie was really set up this week to go – again read why here.
– Marcus looks a lot safer, with decent staging and comments for a couple of weeks now, also leading this week’s group song, just planting the idea he’s a lead contender in people’s minds.
More over the week.
Shambles week was pretty entertaining. Louis trying the same gag several times and laughing hysterically at it, Alexandra Burke proving it’s not that easy to be a judge and the astonishing fact that not a single person in the UK could now name the four members of The Risk.
It’s Sophie Habyebyeis – We tipped her earlier at 3.1 (about 2-1) on Betsfair, if you were watching the live blog and following me like a gambling addicted sheep, then you will have got that price. After Betsfactor.com revealed her as our tip, her price screamed in and she’s now about 2.3. This is the blog that moves betting markets.
So why is the girl next door off?
1.Your Subconscious -Lets take a look at those lyrics she sang over and over again….
Bang bang you shot me down
Bang bang I hit the ground
Bang bang that awful sound
Bang bang my baby shot me down
“Awful Sound”, “Goodbye” “Bang bang”, “you shot me down”. etc.
2. Hanging her in the VT – Craig goes to Liverpool, and some radio station no one has ever heard of and that it appears you can only listen to online, backs him. There are posters everywhere and his parents wear T Shirts with his photo across their breasts. Johnny gets mobbed on a night out and is given a free £6 cocktail, he’s all over the tabloids and the paps are mobbing him. Sophie goes home and one friend joins her in an empty pub, saying “It’s wicked, everyone is supporting you”, one person also has a banner up on some railings somewhere and there was a small article in a local paper. Message – no one cares.
3. 1966 – A memorable year for people in England, and who can forget it was also the year that Cher released that famous #3 chart hit – Bang Bang. A song forty five years old that didn’t even make #1. Will play well with those 19 year old voters.
4. Given an early “bury them” slot. Third in the running order.
5. The Shakes. Listen to the vocals and you can hear how nervous she is.
6. Sulky, Surly, Angry, Unhappy. Her face at the end of the song and at the end of the performances, just looked sulky and annoyed as she came to the realisation she’d been this weeks’ “producers choice” to be binned. Sami knew it was coming, so does Sophie. Poor girl!
7. Dishwater – OK, so Gary called the song as dull as dishwater – but that phrase will stick to her as well. Louis wading in with some comment about her being a secretary who sings at the weekend won’t have helped either. Talking of judges….
8. Wise words – Here are a few edited highlights on what Alexandra Burke had to say “There was some slight tuning problems babe, but it does not take away that you are a beautiful performer. You know what it’s Halloween, don’t we want a nice sort of droopy little song choice here… you are finding your own two feet… just remember each week… shine because you can shine OK?”. Thought provoking.
9. The Markets – As soon as we tipped her to go, the odds tumbled. This is only natural when you have the sort of global credibility that Betsfactor has. Euan, a commentator on sofabet and former colleague of mine has called it correctly for two weeks. @EuanMcMorrow to follow him. He’s going for Sophie as well.
10. Everyone else is either more talented or generates more PR for them. Simple as that. She beats a reasonable number of acts on talent, but those she beats, trump her on PR. What does the show need now? PR.
This week’s bet – Sophie to be eliminated tonight. Betfair 3.1.
WordPress is playing up – so I’m on this page – The rest of the acts that have performed are below…
Misha B – How to throw someone under a bus…. REPEAT THE ALLEGATIONS. And flash the word BULLY four times on the screen. They are trying to nuke this contestant. Zoom in on Tulisa looking pretty irritated and limply handclapping. I’m pretty confident that they don’t see Misha as the winner. Problem is she’s talented, so I’ll AMBER her, as I think she is 100% out of winning this competition.They make her look scary, admittedly in Halloween week. Not good at all.
Frankie – Randy lust crazed Frankie. Not a bad performance, but the “yeah…. he he he he – it’s me and a load of fit dancers on a bed he he he… I’m not prrraaaad of what I did on Sataarday naaght… but yeah know a guys gotta do what a guys gatta do he he he” probably won’t play well with the grandmas. Not bad at all, but women (the voters!) generally don’t like a player. They want someone solid, dependable and unlikely to cheat on you or attempt to bed you. Someone like Craig. AMBER
*** FLASH *** This week’s bet – SOPHIE TO GO. 3.1 (Betfair)
Kitty – Made her look softer in this week’s VT. Gimmicks spinning on a Catherine Wheel, light bondage for the dads, a massive stage show and superb vocal. It was all good. Being in the bottom two last week, means fans will turn out and vote. She’ll be fine. Just like I said last week! GREEN.
Little Mix – After the cock up over their name, (see below), they get a decent draw. “We’re getting loads of support from girls and teenagers”. “They’ve got the same insecurities”. “I’m insecure”. “I’m so so so so so upset about being a bit big”. “Have you ever cried because you’re fat – well you have insecurities so you should vote for us”. Dodgy harmonies today – not surprising, since they were clearly pooing themselves on those swings…. terrible terrible song choice. Normally they give the girls a few extra backing vocals, but they made the raw vocals shine through, which wasn’t good. They’ll get away with it – AMBER. By the way, next week I’ll explain why I think they are still in the mix to make the top few.
Craig – Played the Scouse vote card very strongly. Great stage show, decent vocal. Last. GREEN.
It’s Shambles week on the X Factor as ITV executives face their own Fright Night, as they pray that half the audience aren’t scared away by a series of horrific shambolic gaffes.
As we’ve done before – RED means they are in trouble, AMBER is a middle of the road, hedging my bets, what do I know opinion, GREEN is safe… Remember, last week our expert opinion rated Kitty as green, so these views can be trusted week in, week out.
Here we go Britain.
Remember to hit “REFRESH” or click the Betsfactor Logo a couple of times…
The Risk – described by Alexandra Burke, as “magical”, the key was the big production and the loud backing vocals… Why were they put first? Probably to bury the shambolic news about their line up changing again and putting in a guy from a band no one liked… This was a clever was to bury the news for people still watching Strictly, some people probably won’t notice. I reckon they’ll be fine. GREEN
Johnny – This guy can sing! They will need him for the tour and I think only the top eight go through. Danger of his song choice is that it’s pretty retro and not especially well know. No production so it could have looked dull. I think that was a good performance, and Gary getting up on stage just helped. GREEN
Sophie – In danger. a dull VT, a weak song choice. Sung in a very average style. Several shots of her looking a bit irritated, sulky and surly at the end of the song. Louis continuing to slate her. Even Gary referring to “dull as dishwater” song choices, that phrase still will be associated with her. Bang Bang it could be bye bye. RED
Marcus is starting to find his feet and I would argue that producers are starting to switch their allegiance to him. The vocals were really average, you can tell the judges know vocally he’s mediocre… why – because they used the word “Fun”. You’re fun means, “we want to keep you in the competition, but your singing was ropey”. He had a huge choreography routine, bright lighting etc etc and weak vocals. He’ll probably be OK – I’m giving him an AMBER because I keep tipping him to go!
Janet – Weaker performance for her (great version of Police’s tune). Love that the producers actually understood what this song is about – Sting admits it’s a sinister song, and she delivered it very well. GREEN
Here’s a quick recap of the week’s events, as I see them, in this year’s pretty shambolic X Factor!
* The Risk are now going through ANOTHER CHANGE. I know! In an absurd twist, one of the guys in a band that has been manufactured TWICE has now decided to leave! In a truly crackpot decision, some guy called Ashley, who’s apparently one of the four said “I don’t believe my future lies in a boyband and it’s not fair on Charlie, Derry and Andy to remain in the band when I am not truly committed to it for the long term.”. Turning his back on 15 months of fame, a reasonable amount of money for turning up at Lincs FM’s “Party in the Nature Reserve”, being the face of Margate Council’s Energy Saving Campaign and a few one night stands with women probably a little too old for him, he’s clearly decided it’s time to do a ‘Robbie Williams’ and go it alone. Or probably more a ‘Siobhan from the Sugababes.’
* So what happens next…. You’ve guessed it…! Let’s get in one of the guys from failed, completely rejected, at war boyband Nu Vibe! In an utterly utterly shambolic decision, the now daily changing line up of the Risk, goes through it’s THIRD change during the series. We’re probably just a couple of weeks away from a new ITV2 show, where viewers have to replace one of the members each week, and at Christmas, one celebrity will be voted in, from Paul Danan, Brian Harvey, Jay from Geordie Shore and Brian from Coach Trip. How will this affect the betting, I’m not convinced the 14 year olds will care that much. But what a utter utter dogs dinner.
* Rhythmix generated some decent coverage after a charity complained they shared the same name. Let’s not bother to check the name the girls pick for their band. What would be the point? A four second check (on an up and coming site producers might like to note down… http://www.google.co.uk) shows Rhythmix is a charity – registered number 1125646. Understandably you can get a bit busy and such complex checks can be forgotten, especially when the site does come up second in Google’s Search Results. Shunning obvious choices like “NEW Rhythmix” or “Rhythmix X” their new name is “Little Mix“. Interesting decision – and my concern is that it all sounds a bit childish. Not happy for my 75-1 mega outsider bet.
* To add to the mess, Kelly Rowland is now sick. We all are now Kelly. She won’t be a judge this weekend. With Sinatta and Kate Thornton busy, Nicole Scherzinger, Simon’s supply teacher, could be blandly stepping in to help.
* In terms of press coverage, questions about how Johnny could be claiming disability benefit despite bravely dancing around, are on going. My hunch is it won’t affect the odds too much.
* The guy I like to write off each week, because eventually I will be right, Marcus, again looks decent value for elimination at 27-1. But, apparently he’s doing two tunes today, which will keep the interest up. Sounds like Craig might not be doing a ballad either, which is worrying!
My guess is Frankie will be given everything possible to get rid of him. My main reason, and this sounds strange, he swore during the live results show. Producers don’t want the risk of all the hassle that you get if he were to swear during a live show. As well as many other reasons (he’s not generated much PR this week etc), suggests he’s off. Currently 2.2 on Betfair.
My official bet and live blog will probably be back this evening, but I’m not sure yet. What a professional service, from the world’s greatest X Factor blog. Do comment away or contact me here.
You can write to the blog – contact me here. We’ll publish any old half baked analysis in a desperate bid to do less work and get the hits up.
A reader writes….
Richard – love the blog. This week I’m going with Sophie to win at 15/1 (Betfair), a dark horse that will gather momentum throughout the show.
Let’s look at the evidence.
– She’s survived the bottom two in the first two weeks, the public must like her enough and be aware of her enough.
– As she continues in the competition she’ll only gain in popularity and her airtime will increase once the likes of Frankie and Johnny are out.
– She has a unique sound which is very marketable. If she’s singing on a record you’ll know it’s her.
– Even if she were in the bottom two, she’ll be saved.
– Dont quote me on this, but I’m sure plenty of winners have had similar profiles.
Then look at the favourites:
Janet – public will get bored of her stupid voice. I already am. Remember Diana Vickers?
Micha – already been outed as a bully and doesn’t seem friendly at all. Gives the public no reason to connect with her. No chance.
The Risk – a danger, although a band has never won. Is this lot any more voteable then One Direction/JLS?
Craig – drifted in the betting recently. <further remark edited!>.
Marcus – isn’t that great. has done well so far, but capable of having one or two really poor weeks if the songs don’t suit. could be another dark horse
No one else further out in the betting has a chance.
Richard’s view: I think a lot of this makes sense, she is a little dull, but then so was Leona. There is a danger that her voice could be a bit “samey” just like Janet and she has been a “under the radar” contestant. I’d say it’s reasonable value.
I said it from the start, there is a far superior site to this one, it’s called Sofabet.com and I’ve just read this which I really enjoyed.
Astonishingly I was out last night, so have just watched the Factor.
Despite her frantic pleas for people to bounce back from the recession, use the money saved maybe from using their heating less or economising by using own brand food products to keep her in the competition, Sami is no more. Just one pound would have paid for several phone votes and would have been the right thing for the nation.
A few random musings….
* 7/2 tip Sami was proved correct, as one reader points out “Frankie was 100/30 ON to be in the bottom two – maybe the bookies don’t know it all”. I agree – THE KEY was Dermot at the top of the show saying “it’s very tight at the bottom”. If there is any mention of close voting on a live show, always go against favourites and take longer priced people – I have found this works again and again, because they can’t lie about voting patterns (especially now ITV is whiter than white).
* Frankie’s swearing during a live, pre-watershed show will again potentially turn producers against him. They can do without OFCOM’s and apologies, it could be his turn to be done over next week….
On winners – No act has ever been in the bottom two and gone on to win the competition, so we can knock Kitty out of winning the show.
I also think we can get rid of Misha B(ully) to win. Once you are branded a bully, it’s very difficult to get rid of that tag. Never mind all the scripted apologies and edited out rows, Tulisa saying how much she stole the show last night. She’s just not likeable enough to win!
I wonder if The Risk aren’t doing as well as people expect, because they were put last to be announced as safe, possibly scaring the teenagers into thinking they weren’t safe?
Odds on our original tip Craig to win are out at 12.5 (over 11/1) and I still think the value lies here. Johnny also pulled off a credible performance and I can see him outperforming, especially with his humility and likability with kids.
Tomorrow – One reader tips Sophie to win and explains why.
Later in the week, we’ll look at a more entertaining novelty bet.
Plus hedging Rhythmix. We got them at 75/1 (I actually managed 90/1!), so when do we hedge them and make some cash?
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Our sensational 7/2 tip came good last night. Netting delighted readers up and down the UK and worldwide millions of pounds in cash.
The site that told you NU Vibe would be eliminated when 16 became 12 and that Marcus was history last week can be relied on for fantastic advice, week in week out.
We’re now up 2.5 points going into next week, which is all good….