Back Rhythmix to outperform
Our massive outsider bet is this….
Rhythmix to win 75/1. (Betfair)
It’s a crackpot idea – but here’s the theory…. So girlbands always do very badly on the X Factor. I think these girls will do better than expected… They will outperform people’s expectations. I expect their price to fall to, say 25/1. When they do, you simply hedge (in other words, using Betfair to provide odds to someone else) and if I’m right, triple your money. I’ll explain this principle later if you aren’t up to speed with betting. Not that you’re going to bother!
Will they win. No. Top 5 or 6 – quite possibly.
Here’s the theory.
Not slappers – The girls are being branded in a most unusual way for our friends at ITV. Normally girl bands are dressed up in a sexy way (Saturdays/Girls Aloud). In my view, the primary reason for this is to get some easy press coverage whilst the show builds. Every tabloid is happy to splash a picture of a 22 year old girl in a short skirt, which gets you easy coverage from the start. This year the main girl band are not dressed like that. They are dressed in a more urban, younger and accessible way.
Backing Vocals – Right from the start, last year you could see the fear in the judges eyes when One Direction were average at best. The judges knew they had to keep saying how outstanding they were, because Cowell had clearly decided that this was his latest money making scheme. The backing vocals were pumped up VERY loudly, and the judges then lavished praise on them, as if they were the next Leona…. Danni did it, and still didn’t keep her job! This year, in my view, Nu Vibe didn’t get the backing vocal treatment, but Rhythmix did.
Not that bad – When they do the odd slow tune, they have reasonable harmonies. Two can faux rap as well.
What Simon Wants – What does he need next in his portfolio… I’d say a urban girlband…
I’ll add some better reasons later – but I think that this could be a good bet. I’d be interested if anyone can find another good way of capitalizing on these girls doing better than the market suggests. The spreadbetting odds aren’t that good. Let me know in the comments or send an e mail.
Later I’ll explaining hedging and maybe add a couple of other reasons.