X Factor week 3 Reflections

Astonishingly I was out last night, so have just watched the Factor.

Despite her frantic pleas for people to bounce back from the recession, use the money saved maybe from using their heating less or economising by using own brand food products to keep her in the competition, Sami is no more. Just one pound would have paid for several phone votes and would have been the right thing for the nation.

A few random musings….

*  7/2 tip Sami was proved correct, as one reader points out “Frankie was 100/30 ON to be in the bottom two – maybe the bookies don’t know it all”. I agree – THE KEY was Dermot at the top of the show saying “it’s very tight at the bottom”. If there is any mention of close voting on a live show, always go against favourites and take longer priced people – I have found this works again and again, because they can’t lie about voting patterns (especially now ITV is whiter than white).

* Frankie’s swearing during a live, pre-watershed show will again potentially turn producers against him. They can do without OFCOM’s and apologies, it could be his turn to be done over next week….

On winners – No act has ever been in the bottom two and gone on to win the competition, so we can knock Kitty out of winning the show.

I also think we can get rid of Misha B(ully) to win. Once you are branded a bully, it’s very difficult to get rid of that tag. Never mind all the scripted apologies and edited out rows, Tulisa saying how much she stole the show last night. She’s just not likeable enough to win!

I wonder if The Risk aren’t doing as well as people expect, because they were put last to be announced as safe, possibly scaring the teenagers into thinking they weren’t safe?

Odds on our original tip Craig to win are out at 12.5 (over 11/1) and I still think the value lies here. Johnny also pulled off a credible performance and I can see him outperforming, especially with his humility and likability with kids.

Tomorrow – One reader tips Sophie to win and explains why.

Later in the week, we’ll look at a more entertaining novelty bet.

Plus hedging Rhythmix. We got them at 75/1 (I actually managed 90/1!), so when do we hedge them and make some cash?

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Posted on October 24, 2011, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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