Monthly Archives: November 2011

FIVE NEW REASONS LITTLE MIX WILL WIN

The world’s premier entertainment site Betsfactor shock up the gambling world at midnight on Saturday with a HISTORIC ANNOUNCEMENT. This created immense shockwaves in the betting markets. As a direct result of the historic announcement, odds on Little Mix have fallen an incredible 22% from 2.98 to 2.32. 

Here and Here you can enjoy the journey so far and why it happened…

Five new reasons why Little Mix will win:

1. Drum Banging – Yesterday’s Red and Black Day should give you one new reason. (See menu top left)

2. You know them – When the girls win, who’s face are you going to look for first? This is the first time in the X Factor’s eight year history that we have a member of a girl band we feel we know and are rooting for. It’s also the first time in X Factor history where you can actually name at least one member of the band. Who was in Kandy Rain? Belle Amie? Bad Lashes? Even now, I can only name a couple of the Saturdays!

3. Slot Bullets – The girls have now been on first in the running order, that bullet is out of the way, they can now fairly and reasonably get a decent slot (if the producers feel they need it) on Saturday and a favourable slot for the final.

4. Muppets – Who’s ultimately pulling the strings behind this musical puppet show….? Who’s this backing Little Mix….? Ryan writes “Based on that, your next article should be, five reasons why Tulisa won’t be a judge again.” Doesn’t always work though!

5. Coincidences – Mutually backslapping, love this point from Sofabet.

 Is it purely a coincidence that of the show’s seven winners, it’s the two girls who can be considered successes while Matt Cardle is showing every sign of joining the other four males in the not-so-successful category – and conversely, of the commercially successful acts who have been beaten, more are male? If there a non-coincidence explanation, we can’t think of one. (Full article here)

Got any more? CONTACT ME HERE

Coming up tomorrow. Manchester’s Misha, Merseyside’s Marcus & Middlesbrough’s Meila. Maybe?

Red and Black Day – GRAND FINALE.

Red and Black Day Finale.

Being honest, I am a bit fearful about this post – because I worry you the reader will just think I’m looking into this too deeply. “Yeah, nice point mate, but let it go!”.

So that’s disclaimer number one, you agree to read this with an open mind. Disclaimer number two, this is very half baked at the moment. Disclaimer three – if you came to this site today, you would think this is all I blog about! Today was a closing the case day, and I think I’ve done that here! Red and Black is something to look at in conjunction with everything else from VT’s to show position. Disclaimer four – you could say “yeah, but why aren’t you talking about the diner (there was just too much else going on on that set) and why aren’t you pointing out that Marcus was standing behind a blue background and the “call now” strap very cleverly hid the piano.

So that’s why it’s half baked at the moment, so you accept that and you accept the four disclaimers!

 
You’ve digested Red and Black Day. Based on what you’ve read do you think:

a. The producers are just stupid.
b. This is just a hugely conicidental random event.
c. They are well aware of this and have been using this trick for ages.

I’m going for c.

So we’re agreeing it’s a deliberate act and they are well aware of it. Yes?

Do we agree, most of the time the producers use blue and white (and more colourful pinks etc when they want to). But generally, decent performances or acts they like long term, get blue and white? Yes?

Whilst it’s best to use red with black and silly smokey effects and flames, do we agree that the producers are well aware that using excessive red in a performance is ‘risky’ at best. Yes?

Now think carefully before answering this next one.

Which two acts over the last few weeks have the producers really been pushing? And I mean really pushing. Think first before answering!

 

<answer below>

 

 

If you said Misha B and Little Mix, I agree.

Are we surprised that at no stage Little Mix have had excessive red in ANY of their performances? No.

Are we surprised that since Bullygate in Week 4 and a U Turn on Misha, there has been barely a hint of red in any of her performances? No.

So, to recap. You agree with me.

* They are well aware red is unhelpful.
* It doesn’t happen by chance.
* It’s thought through.

Agreed? Say those three things back to yourself over and over again, whilst you are watching these two videos.

 

Can you spot a predominant block of colour used excessively in this performance?

 

Well, we know why that is; but this is more curious,  what is your eye continually drawn to in this performance?

 

It doesn’t happen by chance. It’s thought through. 

They are well aware red is unhelpful. 

Red and Black Day – The Red and Black Herrings

It’s Red and Black day on Betsfactor. Read the posts on the left first. I’m talking to my imaginary friend today.

The first thing I want to stress, again, is that if you get Red and Black it doesn’t mean you’re going home. The point I am making is Red and Black is a great indicator of producers intentions….

SO WHICH ACT WAS IT THAT HAS NEVER BEEN RED AND BLACKED?

I think we all know the answer to that don’t we. And I think we would all agree one act has been given a massive helping hand over the last few weeks. Strange that they haven’t had any red and black appearing on their sets…. Bar, maybe the colour of the diner!!

AH, BUT IF THIS THEORY IS SO GREAT WHAT ABOUT MARCUS’S PIANO THIS WEEK AND THAT RUSSIAN ROULETTE MOMENT YOU TALKED ABOUT EARLIER.

There was red and black in FOUR different contestants performances. Red is a colour you can’t really get away from using over ten performances! But go back and look at some of your favourite ever performances. I bet the background was a mixture of blue and white/yellow.

It’s an interesting one. And any one reading the live blog actually live will have seen my initial ridiculous reaction. I’ve since deleted it! I wasn’t too worried about the piano – the main thing is that the background was blue. We will come to the piano later.

GIVE ME SOME MORE SUBLIMINAL NONSENSE DERREN BETSFACTOR.

OK – This is just for fun. The show is obsessed with “Popstar” being planted next to Marcus. What shape was he standing on this week?

Gary very charitibly recapped Amelia’s journey for us, in such a lovely manner. The week before when Amelia Lily appeared, what word was being highlighted over and over in red and black?? We’re getting silly now….

Coming Up for the Red and Black Day Finale – 8:15pm – A new half baked theory. The last one was correct, what about this one…?

IT’S IMPORTANT NOT TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH THIS THEORY ISN’T IT?

Oh, absolutely.


Red and Black Day – The Singoffs Twist

It’s Red and Black day on Betsfactor. Where we close the case on the use of this colour scheme being one of a number of methods to nudge us in to not voting. Have a read of the article below first.

The Next Red and Black BOMBSHELL

On ALL of the singoffs, the act that was Red and Blacked WAS SAVED!

So Why?!

* We’re reading too much into it? On a Saturday, I’m absolutely convinced that it’s one of at least half a dozen ways to get the punters to hold off calling that 0901 number. On a Sunday, the singoff staging is fairly irrelevant to the public vote, other than for the drip drop effect.

* Laziness (Just use Blue for the first Red for the second – it doesn’t really matter – pull out a stock graphic)

* They always use Red second to mix it up a bit, so if anyone ever complains they can say “Well you got blue for the singoff and that’s more important”, despite the judges almost certainly having made their mind up already.

* So that in VT’s next week they can use the red and black behind the person, as normally the sing off person will be someone they want to go soon anyway (although this would not be the case with Misha).

So in summary, I’m not sure. My guess is “this is how it’s always done”. The producers have only minutes to sort out staging and so on, so the only decision they ever make is, who do we want going home? They stick that person on first (almost always), and they always get blue. The person on second (normally saved) gets red and black.

Any idea why? CONTACT ME HERE. 

More soon on Red and Black Day.

Red and Black Day – Case Closed.

Welcome to Red and Black Day on Betsfactor. Today we’re closing the case. Throughout the day there will be posts that I hope will convince you.

The post that has attracted the most attention on this site was this one.

It was a post that pointed out another of the methods the producers are, in my opinion, using to gently suggest to us that we might not want to vote for a certain contestant. As well as judges comments, the position in the show, the number of dancers they get, negative press stories etc etc etc.

It’s one of those simple things that makes you go… “Oh Yeah”.

Red AND Black.

IS THIS THEORY PERFECT AND FLAWLESS?

Red is a strong colour, it’s bound to be used a lot in the series, the problem seems to come when it’s used in a darker sort of way. Add smoke, fire, thunder clouds, hell like connotations and the contestant is this week’s chosen one. Just because it’s used doesn’t mean the contestant is going home. The public still decide, but long term your card is marked. The producers MUST realise using Red and Black is “unhelpful” at best. Get a dodgy VT, negativity from the judges, a duff song in a strange key and THEN red and black, you can jump on those betting markets with confidence that they are likely to be off!

WELL THAT’S NONSENSE – MARCUS DODGED A FIREY RED AND BLACK RUSSIAN ROULETTE BULLET IN WEEK TWO.

We tipped Marcus to go in that week. Listen to this weak performance. Watch the camera angle, what is he singing when there are flames directly next to his face (45 sec in)?! Marcus, you didn’t know it, but without your friends in Liverpool, you were history.

“So just pull the trigger”. They didn’t.

SO WHAT CHANGED?

I think the producers were surprised at the vote in week two, despite the ropey performance and decided to back him. Not sure why he got a duff slot in week three though, probably because, like Little Mix, he wasn’t front of mind at that point. They were still backing the acts Betsfactor told you were not going to last. It was also a week where there were still eleven acts, so every percentage point counted. I think it gets easier to spot what’s going on, the less acts there are. Maybe Lesson Two for 2012 is “leave it a couple of weeks”. This site’s performance has steadily got better as the series progresses.

OK – GIVE ME SOME MORE EXAMPLES.

Well, week three/four I think they’d had enough of Sophie.

MORE, GIVE ME MORE

OK. Which other act hit the bottom two in week four? And what colour was her staging?


HMMMM. THIS IS ALL VERY WELL, BUT OTHER ACTS HAD RED AND BLACK THAT WEEK.

Either the producers are monumentally stupid, or they know exactly what they are doing. All the acts they Red and Blacked were expendable at that point. So I don’t think they cared in week two if Marcus went, Craig looked like their 2011 Liverpudlian. Week four was around Bullygate so Misha could go, but after that they appeared to just change their mind about her. Frankie was also Red and Blacked this week along with Sophie and he survived. His staging, like Amelia’s this week, was much brighter.

DO THE PRODUCERS USE THIS EVERY WEEK?

No. Week Six they very generously decided to let everyone have a non red week, saving it to nuke Craig and Janet in the next two weeks.

OK – I’M ENJOYING THIS. GIVE ME SOME MORE.

Certainly invented reader. There will be more later. Including the thing that just makes it obvious from Sunday night, the strange trick they play each week and the one act that have never been Red AND Blacked.

Who could that possibly be?

GIVE ME EVEN MORE. I’M GOING TO ASK ABOUT MARCUS’ PIANO LATER AS WELL.

Ok – I have a very (self) important post coming very very soon. It’s another quarter baked theroy – but could be a massive massive early warning system.

I STILL DON’T BELIEVE IN YOUR RED AND BLACK THEORY.

Yeah it’s nonsense isn’t it.

Postbag

Love getting thoughts, opinions and bits and pieces – Contact me here. Let’s go through a few now…

Ryan Writes: Richard – Love the blog, Marcus could win if in the final, they decide that the acts perform with their mentors Marcus and Gary, Misha B and Kelly, Mix and N dubs.

Now this is a brilliant point. With Louis out of the way, it would work perfectly. I’d be horrified for my 75-1 tip if I saw the charming Dappy and Fazer grinding around with the girls. Their greatest hits is out this week as well… If Marcus and Barlow performed, even if Gazza was just on the piano and they were singing Forever Love, I would be very very worried!

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Next up, a quick plug.

Richard, Thoroughly enjoy your betsfactor site. (That’s the first person who did actually write that)

Just wanted to inform you of http://www.entertainmentodds.com/ which is my similar thing – covering all the major tv betting events.

I’ve been banging the Little Mix drum too to readers since before the live shows, and when they were available at 66-1 e/w on the high street and a whole lot bigger on Betfair.
What an epic run. I don’t want to jinx it but I think they’re looking extremely good to win the whole thing.

Agreed. Not sure if I mentioned, but we recommended them at 75-1. Scientific proof, Betsfactor is 12.0% better than Entertainment Odds.

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J writes this

“Richard – Love the blog. Maybe it’s my age, I hope not, but the thing is I’m finding it a bit tricky navigating around the site, and I’m sure I’ve missed out because of this, and that’s a shame, because what I HAVE seen tonight has been really good, first class. Other than that, well done, I expect to see you again next week.”


Had a few comments on this. I totally agree and if I get chance I will look at this over the next week. If you remember my main aims are to learn about WordPress and to have a laugh. I would hope the content is OK, but you’re right, the presentation is pretty awful isn’t it! Watch this space, if I have time I’ll probably begin an fantastic relaunch.

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Sam writes – Richard – Love the blog – well this is the week when either LM or Marcus could easily be in the bottom two. Maybe they’re not as strong as we thought. Maybe they’ll put in an average performance. Expect the odds to shake up massively if this is the case.

I think this week is a potential hedge for me on LM. If they’re in the bottom two, cr*p, they’ll probably double in price, if not more. If they’re not in the bottom two they’ll come in a bit, but not significantly.

although like you said we think they will win…

If LM are in the bottom two (assuming there is a bottom tw0) their odds will probably triple. NO ONE has ever won it from being in the bottom two. Ever. At all. In any series.

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David writes Richard – Love the blog. I thought I would pose a more “philosophical” question – you will no doubt brand it “embarrassing” – raised by several family and friends who, like moths to a flame, are now flocking to the world’s leading X Factor betting blog.

Now, it’s taken time to persuade some people of the general “dirty tricks” theory upon which your betting seems to pivot, and which seasoned followers clearly take as a given: that the programme-makers are actively promoting favourite acts and ruthlessly sabotaging others, and this is, at least in the long-term, the decisive factor in outcomes. However, any remaining scepticism that this was not the case vanished with DEVLOUT. So the next question is why?

Why do they even bother? Why not, in a pseudo-democratic singing contest, when there is surely a risk of a huge backfire if these tactics are too obvious (especially with incisive blogs like betsfactor about – he did write that), just allow things to run their course? If the public like an act, surely they’re going to vote for that act, buy their records, watch the show? What are we missing? Is there a tension between ratings and record sales? A divergence between teenaged text voters and middle-aged record buyers? Can the producers just not help themselves? Why must ITV1 democracy be so depressingly corrupt?


Firstly The opinions above are not the opinions of Betsfactor and I would certainly not describe the Democratic Republic of ITV1 corrupt. They merely like to give the public a helping hand in deciding which acts are best.

Secondly, as I tweeted at the very start of  this year’s X Factor, the show peaked last year. Now, it’s still doing incredibly well for ITV, all the stories of ratings drops etc are absolute nonsense, they will be thrilled with the audience figures, and the X will continue to for a good many years to come, but the show is coming towards the maturer end of it’s product life cycle.

This blog gets a tiny amount of readers, I’m sure even far better betting sites don’t get a million hits a week, nor is an occasional thread on Digital Spy going to worry them. Producers will always be one step ahead. For instance, we only spotted red and black this year, they might have been using other such techniques for years without us noticing and they might also be using techniques now occasionally that we don’t notice until a clear pattern develops. By that point it’s too late. So the point about a “risk” of being caught out is true (especially if a tabloid picks up on it), eventually fatigue will reach critical mass, but we’re right at the very very start of that.

Your central point seems to be “why not just let events happen and not try and influence what happens?”. Firstly, influencing doesn’t always work. Gareth Gates, Rowan Park and most incredibly Susan Boyle were all red hot favourites to win, pimped crazily by producers, but they didn’t win it – so it doesn’t always come to pass that the acts the producers back will win. Misha B is a superb example of this this year. It also requires the premise that the most successful vote winning acts will go on to have successful careers. That isn’t the case, in the age of social media if the “vote for the really crap act” idea gets a head of steam at the last minute they are screwed, equally I doubt Britain’s Got Talent’s Jai will have a mammoth career! If the “wrong” type of act wins, (say a Wagner or a Chico), the long term credibility of the X Factor brand is damaged. Can you imagine a £1m recording contract going to Chico? He might have a couple of singles and that would be the end of the joke – wasted year both in terms of money made on the back of the act and for the show itself.  The X Factor has introduced us to some great popstars and Leon Jackson. Many gently helped along. It’s kindness from ITV.

This show makes so much more cash via advertising and voting than by actual single sales. (That is yet another example of a point I think is accurate but have absolutely no hard evidence to back up with). So the show needs to survive by having credible acts in the final, by having favoured contestants given a helping hand when they need it most, helping novelty acts until they are no longer needed and most importantly having lots of shocks, twists and turns, controversy etc etc.

Ratings are the #1, #2 and #3 Priority.

Basically, like normal democracy, we need to be told what to do, given a limited simple choice and nudged in the right direction to do things once they are in power. We don’t always see the reasons for things (eg bolshy contestants back stage, their voice is actually ropey etc). Little Mix would have been out by week three if they weren’t given a gentle helping hand. And thank goodness they were. God Bless ITV.

That’ll do for Postbag for the moment. CONTACT ME HERE to say hello.

Reflections on Sunday

I’ll keep this brief as there’s LOADS to read below this post. I’ve explained why Janet vanished in to red and black smoke already and we pretty much doubled our cash last night.

Click on the links, if you haven’t read the LIVE BLOG or the reasons Janet went and also the HISTORIC announcement.

Each Monday I like to reflect on what we’ve just seen….

* Words to reflect on first. “Collaborate with the world’s most famous puppets and you know you have made it.“. Yeah.

* After the historic announcement, I have a number of concerns, and I’ll write a few later in the week. The producers are obsessed with the word POPSTAR whenever they show Marcus. Louis crowbarred it into the roundup numbers VT. Almost every show they use that word in a subconcious manner to plant the idea in our mind that he is a POPSTAR. Which worries me.

* Jessie J’s Little Mix endorsement isn’t quite as good as One Direction’s, but the drip drop will do for me.  On the show the majority of the celeb endorsements are for the Mixettes. Message: These great people are backing them, why the hell aren’t you?

* Misha remains at the bottom of the M&S advert and crucially they’ve decided to allow her to lead the charity single. Janet sounds sensational on it. Marcus doesn’t. It was very unhappy at how little of the single the Mixettes were given, Perry was given a few Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaas, but a first slot behind Johnny is pretty weak and indicates that maybe the historic announcement could be on shakier ground. Although to be fair, groups would sound odd at the start. Sophie placed before Amelia also says a lot.

* Little Mix were left until last in the results reveal. This is the second time they’ve done this in a row. Not sure whether that shows they were third in the voting and the producers want to scare us into voting next week.

Tonight: Postbag – loads of comments, letters and pointers from you, the three readers. There’s still time to get your ill thought through opinion mentioned. Hit CONTACT NOW!

Tomorrow: Red and Black Herrings.

JANET DEVLOUT

The real reason Janet was throwing up back stage last night has not been widely reported.  She had been reading Betsfactor and realised the earthquake was coming. This is your early warning system site. The site that spots the tremors and jumps under tables before the rest of the market.

Yet another correct weekly bet. If you follow Betsfactor religiously (and lets be honest, I should start getting cult like devotion), you will have seen this coming a mile off. 

Please don’t do this, but if you’d stuck a tenner on every single one of our tips you’d now have £49.70 profit.  A staggering 497% return. Only pyramid schemes, oil exploration firms and 0901 phone competitions to win two tickets to see Olly Murs return that sort of astonishing amount.

We’ve  been saying this has been coming for weeks. Disclaimer.  Here are a few reasons she went.

1. Drip Drop Drip drop – Where did that quote come from!?

My drip drop theory is simple. Keep hammering the same point over and over and over.  This point: Devlin’s Dull. They have done this again and again with the VT’s over the last few weeks, with judges remarks and check this out….

Loads of papers picked up on “I’m one of the very many people that can’t stand the sound of their own voice, that’s just how it is.”. Headline they want. JANET – EVEN I CAN’T STAND MY VOICE!  I spotted this early yesterday and posted what I called a “quarter baked theory” about it.

So where on earth did that quote come from? It doesn’t appear to have been atributed to any specific media outlet. So, in my view, that’s come straight from the Press Office, via the Press Association, and diseminated around the world. Why would they pick that quote do you think?

This has strange similarities with a story leaked about Craig last weekend. Something to watch and something to keep an eye on!

2. Red and Black. It really was laughable what they did with her face this week.

You've Been Framed.

As I’ll point out in the next couple of days, it was all there again, the plinth, the smokey firey effects, and lots and lots of red and black. I also noticed something they did tonight with Red and Black which I’ll reveal on Tuesday.

3. Janet’s not a Christmas person! Thanks to my friend Sam, who spotted in her first VT this gem. Janet pointed out she was “not a Christmas Person”. She also said she was not a “guilty pleasures type of person”. Happy Happy Happy. She probably didn’t even like Olly Murs’ performance. I’m not a puppet person either Janet.

4. Frowning and Forgetting. Her comments at the end of the show, “I just can’t wait to get out of the show” summed it up for me. A couple of weeks ago at the end of a group song she was caught on camera looking miserable and this week she again (apparently – can’t remember when she did this in the past!) forgot her words. Her version of Mmmm Bop was staged deliberately to be the very definition of “3 out of 10”.

5. Judges – Remember a few weeks back, Kelly completely failed to back Janet against some Barlow negativity. If you want an act to survive you slate them publicly, get loads of boos and then loads of telephone calls. If you want an act to go, you either stage a row about something or better still hold back and try and find something positive like “I really wasn’t feeling that performance tonight but that brooch you’re  wearing tonight show’s you’ve got style girl, so well done for that”. They weren’t angry. They were just disappointed. And that’s worse!

6. Diana Devlin – As soon as I saw Janet I felt she was going home. The voice is great. but it isn’t very versatile. Janet will probably get an album out of it (especially over the Irish Sea where she appears to have support). Diana Vickers, a couple of years back, had a similar sounding voice and a similar problem. By week five we’d heard it all before.

7. Patronising Paragraph – The poor girl has just turned 17. She’s not matured and found her identity yet. She doesn’t really understand the media, what not to say in front of 12 million people, how to be likeable, the importance of always looking like you’re enjoying yourself etc etc. Amelia may also have been sent home the first time around for this very reason. When they are 16/17 it’s harder for them. Patronising Paragraph over.

Stick with Betsfactor over the week for all sorts of world class betting coverage as we gear up for the semi final:

MONDAY – Reflections on Sunday and your letters (Contact me here to send me unpleasant remarks, questions (ask the expert – the guy who tipped Craig – ha ha) and cash.

TUESDAY – Red and Black Herrings.

WEDNESDAY – The reasons for Betsfactor’s HISTORIC ANNOUCEMENT.

THURSDAY – Why the other three should give up and go home.

FRIDAY – A short point about shivering.

SATURDAY – Betsfactor LIVE!

The X – It’s Complicated (Part Three – REDS)

If you’ve just woken up, you’ve missed three posts. Firstly a historic midnight announcement, scroll  down and you’ll read the rest.

We’re talking about relationships. How Facebook let us click “It’s Complicated” and you might do that with the X. 


Now my Reds:

BOTH got the FULL Red and Black Treatment. Don’t give me nonsense about Misha or Marcus sets, as I’ll show on Tuesday, they are red and black herrings.

BOTH got dire VT’s in the style we’ve seen before

BOTH had songs I’d earlier highlighted as “worrying”.

AMELIA.

I think the plan is this. Ideally they want Misha for the final. Amelia is the back up plan. Janet will have the kitchen sink thrown at her next week if they can’t get rid of her today.

However, Amelia is in danger and will go if she ends up against Misha. Ideally they want Amelia out next week, she’s been a nice gimmick, but they’d rather not have her in the final.

* In the FA Cup on ITV, when underdogs go on the road to Wembley, you don’t see VT’s explaining why they were given byes in Round Two, Three, Four and Five. We’d have to see one about Amelia’s Road to Wembley where basically she took a few weeks off and stayed in a Travellodge on the M1. Everyone would be embarrassed.

* Gary did a very clever thing this week. Pretending to present her journey as a very positive thing. “If I can just remind everyone of your journey…. you got kicked off on the first show, you spent five weeks in limbo…”, just gently stabbing her in the back but with a lovely lovely manner and smile.

* The VT for her this week was exactly in the same vein as the Sophie Habyebye one and Kitty’s dad shouting at passers by in the week she went. Some guy in a pink jumpsuit is horrifying shoppers in Teeside and yelling at them to vote for Amelia. Some local radio station is backing her and there are a few posters again. Exactly what we saw for Kitty and similar for Sophie.

* Kelly’s great line “She’s got so much support out there, (hands down dismissively) she’s gonna be fine”. So no need to vote everyone. It’s in the bag.

* Her pieces to camera are a little bored and tired.

* More Red and Black for Amelia. But maybe a bit lighter this time. Have a look:

I rate Amelia RED.

JANET

Finally…. Janet. She was who they thought they wanted to win the competition. But as in relationships, things change. You realise that that person you’re with maybe isn’t the person you thought. Maybe they seem a bit one dimensional, or maybe they seem a bit dull. Or maybe they forget something at a crucial moment.

All reasons to gently let someone down. Drip Drop Drip Drop. Or poison their food. Which ever you prefer.

Janet started with a positive VT – her switching on the Christmas lights, but her second one just made her look a bit of a loner and lots of negative words were used like “obscure”, “Brendan”, “odd”, “alternative music tastes”. Drip Drop Drip Drop.

Add to that the smoky red and the almost laughable attempts to provide negative connotations. Putting her face in a frame and then burning it really is a new low for our friends at Syco. If you don’t normally watch these videos – go on, just watch this, it really is absurd and brings my Red and Black theory to a whole new level.

add to that this diabolical performance of Mmmm Bop. I don’t need words, just watch it.

* Weak and average staging. They want her gone!!

* This just feels like Diana Vickers all over again.

* Hilariously muted criticism from the judges despite the fact that it was a decent vocal second time around. Gary (who’s very sharp), repeated the words boring and “you’re not versitale”.
On ITV2 Louis was asked “Who’s going home?”. He said “Janet did not have a great night tonight”. Notice also in the ITV1 show he didn’t directly plead with Ireland to vote (although interestingly he did with Amelia pleading for “everybody in the North of England” to pick up the phone.)

I think Janet’s going this evening and backed her at about evens. At the very least they are frantically trying to loosen her support. As I’ve said for a long time. She won’t win. RED

The X – It’s Complicated (Part Two – AMBER)

We’re looking at our “it’s complicated” relationship with our X. Catch up below.

MISHA – Now this really is complicated. This is the story of the one that just had too much drama. Here’s my theory. It’s just speculation and I’ll go into this in more detail in about 10 days if she’s still in it. Tulisa went overboard with the bullying thing, the producers then ballsed up and repeated the allegations in next week’s VT. Kelly kicked off and felt it really unfair. Kelly now supports Misha over the other two and is really rooting for her (based on this Daily Mail article!). Misha’s learning to become more humble and people are starting to warm to the fact that she’s got vunerabilities. I think Kelly’s kicked off and there is now an unwritten agreement. Tulisa reins it in and let’s the producers backtrack on her behalf and ramp up her support with a range of ridiculous VT’s; in return Kelly backs Little Mix.

The only problem with this, is the negative press that they can’t control (see that Daily Mail article for instance!).

Just like last week, the producers want to keep her, but we can’t predict the public mood (especially after a worse than expected final performance and more negative stories this week).

So, the plan is to keep her out of the bottom two for as long as they can get away with. It’s for one simple reason. She IS the most talented!

Personally, I think she could fall into the bottom two tonight. But outrageously, I reckon she’d be saved against Janet. She’s very AMBER for me.

Next. 11am – The Reds

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