Three Up. Three Down. Three Going

In a hotel room, so this post is a bit badly written/badly editted/rambly etc etc.  But what’s new?

It’s the rise of a new generation.

This week was a major major turning point for the show. The rise of a new generation is on.

A few weeks back, it was clear from the betting and the way the show was being set up, that there were three clear favourites. ALL THREE are now in some sort of trouble.

Also it’s becoming clear that there is a rise of THREE new favourites, two pushed by the show. What’s amusing, is two of these three are the two I advised backing from the start, but just to prick my fat cash balloon, there is also the one I predicted would go quite early on.

I’ve said it over and over, but you only need to watch the production, carefully watch the VT’s and listen to the backing vocals to know who producers are supporting.

RISERS:

– CRAIG –  He breifly went favourite last night and I would argue they let him off the hook this week. With a hybrid of DJ Sammi (or Bryan Adams!) version of Heaven, doing both the candlelight mix and the original, they effectively let him top and tail the song with…. a ballad. He gave a great performance and the crowd reaction was again sensational – The X Factor audience is a reasonable jury (albeit loaded with family and friends!). The VT made him look a bit cocky! “Every week my comments get better and better”, “I’m so proud” etc. But he’s here to stay.

LITTLE MIX. This is the site that tipped them at 75-1, I got them at 90-1 and at one stage last night they zoomed in to 7-1 to win. These guys are clearly being backed to survive for all the reasons we’ve gone into before. This week they were terrible, but listen to the One Direction style help they got with backing vocals and then compare that to Johnny, who was hung out to dry last night, with a terrible song and no backing vocals at all. The judges lied through their teeth saying how superb they were and the phone vote VT round up was editted to be the bit with the highest concentration of backing vocal. Given I stand to win £800 if they win,  I was concerned about how bad their performance was last night…. Why don’t you enjoy it again…

But they were also given FIVE extra bits of help last night:

– They were shown as the only act to have “sung with Jessie J”, when actually in practise the Risk performed at the same gig, this wasn’t mentioned.

– They did a very upto date contemporary  song. Unlike Misha, The Risk and Janet.

– They were given a giant map and a clear regional vote sell. So pointing out how two of the girls were from South Shields, with a big graphic will help the NE vote turn out. Amazing how much help they are getting!

– They were on in the final two slots for a second time in two weeks. These slots always do well.

– And of course, Tulisa again hammering home “representing ladies everywhere”. If you’re a lady, or you’re in the North East, or you’re young, or you once overate, or you’re in Essex, vote now!

Will they win? Not sure. But our “outperform expectations” bet looks spot on. When to hedge…! See here and here

MARCUS – From my tip in week one to actually go, this guy has emerged as the now favourite to win. A slow burner, the producers have found the style of music that suits him and he’s now giving some superb performances. The Liverpool vote is split and Marcus is slightly less talented but slightly more likeable than Craig, so it’s a close one to call between him and Craig as to who will triumph. He was given a huge production, that made him look a star, from his own black and white introduction, a superb stage show, fireworks, some nice camera effects etc etc – He was clearly the performer of the night, and wasn’t helped with a final slot (reserved for acts they want to push and push like Little Mix). He was also built up at the “top of the show hype” with a bit of positive coverage.

My Top 3 final prediction: Marcus or Craig, Janet, Little Mix. (Or a combo of these four – maybe even both boys).

FALLERS:

This will probably make me look silly, but here are the three I’m ruling out to win. These were the three favourites.

JANET – She’ll probably make the final, but yesterdays performance makes her vunerable. She forgot the lyrics, looked like she was about to cry, and as I’ve said before on this site is too much of a one trick pony to win.

MISHA B – Was softened this week, with a nice VT of her family coming to see her, show her crying and she looks less of a bully. Also a great performance, but no one who’s come in the bottom two ever, ever goes on to win it. Ever.

THE RISK – Astonishingly bad VT with subliminal phrases like “A bit of a shambles”, “going down”, “a little bit lost”, So JLS, do you think there’s a lot of chance of us finding a gap in the market… er….erm. Allowed the talented one to sing, but then the judges highlighted it  – almost saying “the rest of you can’t sing very well”. Given little if any no backing vocal help (unlike Little Mix). But their harmonies were tight enough to survive through the song. Long term their card is marked.

THREE IN TROUBLE

Frankie – Was the only contestant highlighted in a negative light in the top of the show hype. During the course of his “bit” last night who could forget the following phrases “he’s not the best singer in the competition”, “is it the voice – probably not”, “Don’t do something that’s going to make everyone hate you”, “don’t annoy people in the papers”. “That was really bad karaoke”, “you’re not a rockstar, you never will be a rockstar”, “Song choice wise it was a bit soft for you”. His performance was terrible and we’re backing him for a early bath.

Kitty – A dull performance, been in the bottom two before, looked like a diva, and having “racist” branded across the papers never helps. They didn’t give her any gimmicks this week, and it could be her time to go. Shame she can sing!

I actually think Johnny  might survive – Although he was given first slot and was absolutely hung out to dry (placing him on a plinth and giving him NO backing vocal support at all) the VT was very sympathetic and made him look humble. “Needs to believe in himself”. “I know I’m very lucky” “aren’t the public kind for keeping me in”. He was allowed to talk to the cameras and introduce people to the punters, and make some gags. Gary also tried to stop him making a quip at the end of the show, so it’s clear the producers want him out now – but I think he might get an extra week. His days are well and truly numbered now though.

This week’s bet – FRANKIE 8th elimination. 2.2 (Betfair).

Many of the acts had a bad week, I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them (maybe bar Marcus) were in the bottom three. But there is a rise of a new generation of potential winners – If you haven’t done so already, it’s time to switch allegences with your betting…. If you stuck with this blog you’ll have known all this weeks ago. Sort of.

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Posted on November 6, 2011, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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