A reader writes – Amelia good value?

Here’s one from the bulging postbag. Contact here  if you want to get involved!

Incredible new developments. The x factor just keeps getting better and better. When I say better of course I mean shambolic, awful and short termist. Surely this is the beginning of the end for the show?

What can they do next year other than bring Simon back?

Looking at Amelia/other odds is very interesting. Firstly she’s 5/1 on to come back in, so it’s pretty much a done deal.

To win she’s 13/2 5th favourite. To be eliminated she’s 13/2 the same as mischa and little mix, so while bookies don’t think she’s likely to win they also think she’s probably safe for a week.

I think 13/2 on her to win is massive. Just about every act this year bores. It’s about this stage when the non descript people that have survived like Alexandra Burke come to the front. The reason being they haven’t been noticed and therefore annoyed everyone every week with their voice and personality. Plenty of examples of this, Diana Vickers being a good one.

Amelia will be new, fresh, different and has enough time to build up a support base for the final. Perfect time for her to join with Sophie now gone. Very different to Janet (she’s actually got a proper voice) and likeable and down to earth unlike Mischa.

Once Kitty has gone (even money this week) the “good voice” voters will switch from Kitty to Amelia

There will be a portion of “fair play” voters that will avoid her out of principle as she’s missed half of the votes so that’s a worry.

First week’s song choice is utterly vital to establish a brand.

Even if she’s only OK you can’t see the judges going “sorry, actually that wasn’t good, you shouldn’t have come back”. It’s going to be a rousing reception.

Lump in 13/2!!

 Richard’s View – I agree that it’s likely she’ll survive this week, the judges will probably keep her ahead of Kitty, but if she ends up head to head with anyone else I’m not so sure. I think the odds are she will survive at least one week, as we Brits like an underdog just as much as we like fair play. I don’t think she’ll win it, so you should only go for 13/2 if you think the odds will come in sufficiently to enable a decent hedge. Not convinced it’s worth  it.

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Posted on November 10, 2011, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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