Postbag

Love getting thoughts, opinions and bits and pieces – Contact me here. Let’s go through a few now…

Ryan Writes: Richard – Love the blog, Marcus could win if in the final, they decide that the acts perform with their mentors Marcus and Gary, Misha B and Kelly, Mix and N dubs.

Now this is a brilliant point. With Louis out of the way, it would work perfectly. I’d be horrified for my 75-1 tip if I saw the charming Dappy and Fazer grinding around with the girls. Their greatest hits is out this week as well… If Marcus and Barlow performed, even if Gazza was just on the piano and they were singing Forever Love, I would be very very worried!

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Next up, a quick plug.

Richard, Thoroughly enjoy your betsfactor site. (That’s the first person who did actually write that)

Just wanted to inform you of http://www.entertainmentodds.com/ which is my similar thing – covering all the major tv betting events.

I’ve been banging the Little Mix drum too to readers since before the live shows, and when they were available at 66-1 e/w on the high street and a whole lot bigger on Betfair.
What an epic run. I don’t want to jinx it but I think they’re looking extremely good to win the whole thing.

Agreed. Not sure if I mentioned, but we recommended them at 75-1. Scientific proof, Betsfactor is 12.0% better than Entertainment Odds.

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J writes this

“Richard – Love the blog. Maybe it’s my age, I hope not, but the thing is I’m finding it a bit tricky navigating around the site, and I’m sure I’ve missed out because of this, and that’s a shame, because what I HAVE seen tonight has been really good, first class. Other than that, well done, I expect to see you again next week.”


Had a few comments on this. I totally agree and if I get chance I will look at this over the next week. If you remember my main aims are to learn about WordPress and to have a laugh. I would hope the content is OK, but you’re right, the presentation is pretty awful isn’t it! Watch this space, if I have time I’ll probably begin an fantastic relaunch.

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Sam writes – Richard – Love the blog – well this is the week when either LM or Marcus could easily be in the bottom two. Maybe they’re not as strong as we thought. Maybe they’ll put in an average performance. Expect the odds to shake up massively if this is the case.

I think this week is a potential hedge for me on LM. If they’re in the bottom two, cr*p, they’ll probably double in price, if not more. If they’re not in the bottom two they’ll come in a bit, but not significantly.

although like you said we think they will win…

If LM are in the bottom two (assuming there is a bottom tw0) their odds will probably triple. NO ONE has ever won it from being in the bottom two. Ever. At all. In any series.

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David writes Richard – Love the blog. I thought I would pose a more “philosophical” question – you will no doubt brand it “embarrassing” – raised by several family and friends who, like moths to a flame, are now flocking to the world’s leading X Factor betting blog.

Now, it’s taken time to persuade some people of the general “dirty tricks” theory upon which your betting seems to pivot, and which seasoned followers clearly take as a given: that the programme-makers are actively promoting favourite acts and ruthlessly sabotaging others, and this is, at least in the long-term, the decisive factor in outcomes. However, any remaining scepticism that this was not the case vanished with DEVLOUT. So the next question is why?

Why do they even bother? Why not, in a pseudo-democratic singing contest, when there is surely a risk of a huge backfire if these tactics are too obvious (especially with incisive blogs like betsfactor about – he did write that), just allow things to run their course? If the public like an act, surely they’re going to vote for that act, buy their records, watch the show? What are we missing? Is there a tension between ratings and record sales? A divergence between teenaged text voters and middle-aged record buyers? Can the producers just not help themselves? Why must ITV1 democracy be so depressingly corrupt?


Firstly The opinions above are not the opinions of Betsfactor and I would certainly not describe the Democratic Republic of ITV1 corrupt. They merely like to give the public a helping hand in deciding which acts are best.

Secondly, as I tweeted at the very start of  this year’s X Factor, the show peaked last year. Now, it’s still doing incredibly well for ITV, all the stories of ratings drops etc are absolute nonsense, they will be thrilled with the audience figures, and the X will continue to for a good many years to come, but the show is coming towards the maturer end of it’s product life cycle.

This blog gets a tiny amount of readers, I’m sure even far better betting sites don’t get a million hits a week, nor is an occasional thread on Digital Spy going to worry them. Producers will always be one step ahead. For instance, we only spotted red and black this year, they might have been using other such techniques for years without us noticing and they might also be using techniques now occasionally that we don’t notice until a clear pattern develops. By that point it’s too late. So the point about a “risk” of being caught out is true (especially if a tabloid picks up on it), eventually fatigue will reach critical mass, but we’re right at the very very start of that.

Your central point seems to be “why not just let events happen and not try and influence what happens?”. Firstly, influencing doesn’t always work. Gareth Gates, Rowan Park and most incredibly Susan Boyle were all red hot favourites to win, pimped crazily by producers, but they didn’t win it – so it doesn’t always come to pass that the acts the producers back will win. Misha B is a superb example of this this year. It also requires the premise that the most successful vote winning acts will go on to have successful careers. That isn’t the case, in the age of social media if the “vote for the really crap act” idea gets a head of steam at the last minute they are screwed, equally I doubt Britain’s Got Talent’s Jai will have a mammoth career! If the “wrong” type of act wins, (say a Wagner or a Chico), the long term credibility of the X Factor brand is damaged. Can you imagine a £1m recording contract going to Chico? He might have a couple of singles and that would be the end of the joke – wasted year both in terms of money made on the back of the act and for the show itself.  The X Factor has introduced us to some great popstars and Leon Jackson. Many gently helped along. It’s kindness from ITV.

This show makes so much more cash via advertising and voting than by actual single sales. (That is yet another example of a point I think is accurate but have absolutely no hard evidence to back up with). So the show needs to survive by having credible acts in the final, by having favoured contestants given a helping hand when they need it most, helping novelty acts until they are no longer needed and most importantly having lots of shocks, twists and turns, controversy etc etc.

Ratings are the #1, #2 and #3 Priority.

Basically, like normal democracy, we need to be told what to do, given a limited simple choice and nudged in the right direction to do things once they are in power. We don’t always see the reasons for things (eg bolshy contestants back stage, their voice is actually ropey etc). Little Mix would have been out by week three if they weren’t given a gentle helping hand. And thank goodness they were. God Bless ITV.

That’ll do for Postbag for the moment. CONTACT ME HERE to say hello.

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Posted on November 28, 2011, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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