Here’s yesterday’s LIVE BLOG. If you’ve not seen this before we run a traffic light system. (We also refer to ourselves as ‘we’ when there absolutely no one else involved).

RED means “serious trouble” Janet was RED’ed twice last week. Not to be confused with Red and Black of course.

AMBER has always been me making a big Hmmmmmmmmmmm noise and screwing my face up.

GREEN is “absolutely fine, we’ll see you next week”.

Naturally, with two songs now, you can get a contradictory mess of colours….

During the live blog we (I) have been known to announce this week’s bet live. At this moment I am not sure who they want out, have a look here at the song choices

Odds are still falling for Little Mix. Now 2.14 on Betfair. This is the site that even said “take them at 2-1”. You could have made 40% just hedging now!

Song choice wise, you can see the list below or here Misha B has some decent enough songs in there, I actually said earlier 8/10 for her songs, I’ll knock that back a bit, because actually rapping makes her look more aggressive and will knock the sweet edge the song has out. 7/10. Amelia has the worst two songs, the first very difficult to nail, the second, just very dreary and dull and one the kids won’t remember.

If Misha is on LAST. I think they STILL want to keep her. Expect some really big VT where she breaks down. If they’ve given up she won’t be on last. Read all of this to realise that last doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll survive and it almost always means you won’t win.

Finally, remember, this is a live blog, but in a 2002 style. So click on REFRESH on your browser (is it F5?), or click on the Betsfactor logo at the top and you’ll get the latest thoughts every few minutes…..

Game On.

If you fancy getting involved with your ill informed thoughts, they are just as welcome as my ill informed thoughts, so e mail richard@betsfactor.com or tweet me @straffon.

Live – Nothing much of note in that top of the show VT. Kelly talking in streethood again, Tulisa screaming about how important it is not to think of any one as safe…. Demots dances are a great idea – first time he gets to show some personality.

We have confirmation of there being no singoff.

MISHA  “In imitation across the nation” a lyric perfect for the X Factor. Not going to place a bet yet, lets see what happens…. Nice of the producers to remind us just how often she’s in the bottom two. Not again not again not again.  OAP’s don’t like rapping. If they want to save Misha, sticking rapping on during a motown song is just a stupid idea. Lots of Marcus style whooping and they’ve managed to pick a dress that makes her look several sizes bigger than she is. Tulisa “what can I say ya know”. Interesting that the judges are ramping her up – maybe to stop people from phoning. Confusing. Not sure where we are at the moment after that. Her self satisfied smirk at the end of the performance won’t have helped. I’m on the fence…. AMBER.

So, we have some indication of the running order, probably Misha, Amelia, Little Mix, Marcus. THIS IS PERFECT PERFECT PERFECT!! Have another read of this to see why.

Current odds – 1.49 Misha to go. Amelia 3.5

Amelia –  Kelly looked like a startled horse who’d just seen a 4 by 4 coming round a country lane at high speed.  Amelia sounding hugely scripted in her bland VT. They picked a song that was very very difficult to nail. But a choir and a massive massive massive production that had very strange similarities with Marcus’ Jesus. Looks like the judges are going to play nice today. GREEN

For some reason Dermot forgets to mention Betsfactor in his round up of ways to get involved with the show. @straffon for tweets. richard@betsfactor.com for e mails.

Little Mix – “You have friendship” says Gary as we get served a close up of Jesy’s tear stained face on 42 inch plasmas around the nation. How anyone can possibly say these girls are not going to win when you get a VT with lines like “Their bond reminds me…. just… so much of when I was in Destiny’s Child”. “I just need to remember how lucky I am to be with these girls”. usual VT tactic of showing them signing autographs and a nice gag from Perrie. What could possibly go wrong…?


A touch of Red and Black…  Not that much.

Leigh Ann forgets her words….

Gary slagged off the other three girls and causes some tension…

Massive judges row, Tulisa looks beaten, it’ll affect them going into the second song.



Katherine writes – “loving the little mix ‘what could possibly go wrong?’ comments, it was a total comedy of errors!”

Marcus – And what word did we hear in the VT within seconds of it airing!? POPSTAR! (see god knows how many posts before this one!) Hugely humble start. Wacky banter with Robbie Williams who pops in to give his support. But then he gave his support to Olly Murs a couple of years back. This made him come across as just a lovely guy. Someone needs to tell Marcus, he doesn’t need to Whoop after every second lyric. Interesting to see the vegas connotation behind him – does that say “star” or does that make us thing “cruise ship”. Nice shot of Tulisa looking thoroughly P*** ed off as she realises her 75-1 Betsfactor suggested bet is gently slipping away…. That was an excellent performance. Louis does his duty again and crowbars the word POPSTAR in.  Tulisa tries to dampen the excitement but gets drowned out. GREEN  

Chris writes “Marcus looking and sounding smooth tonight”.

I think it’s perfectly reasonable that he is favourite now. His CoWel% (chance of winning expressed like a percentage) is about 30% in my view… Urgh.

=HALF TIME VIEW = Misha – Don’t rap, even for 5 seconds, in a motown classic. Silly. Amelia – Did enough. Little Mix – Disaster. I think Gary DELIBERATELY and probably against producers wishes, said that stuff about Perrie. After all, he wants to win. Tulisa tried to fire back with a very very weak attempt at manufacturing a song choice argument, but was drowned out. Dirty tricks from Nasty Gary. Marcus is fine.

Misha – The stylists do an excellent job each week of just making her look scary. On this occasion she is wearing a tacky purple crystal on her hand, that looks like something out of a bad 70’s scifi film, and how else can we really make her look bad, without resorting to red and black… yeah, let’s make her look like she’s radioactive and have steam coming out of her. Misha didn’t really understand what this song was about and didn’t really sing it correctly. She sang it badly. I think she’s off.  Last time she sang a Lady Gaga tune in an off key way ( I THINK) she ended up into the bottom two. Gary is being a naughty boy today. RED

Your thoughts. David “This is looking very very dangerous for the people holding big Little Mix bets”.

Chris: “I have a bad feeling about Misha – shame as I like her”.

Amelia – Love the image of her singing into her mirror in her VT. The producers gloss over the ludicrious twists in the competition. That eyeball behind her is NOT GOOD AT ALL. That’s just a horrible image to have behind her – also looks a bit like a bullseye…. My money is that is very deliberate. That wasn’t a great performance either – ropey and a song people really don’t know. Louis ramped her up. Tulisa looks seriously disappointed tonight… Gary gently pours cold water as well. RED.

Your comments – @straffon or richard@betsfactor.com


>> BREAKING << I think the producers have made a EMERGENCY decision to switch the two final performances….  I wonder if the judges will be sternly told to talk up Little Mix to the max in this next performance….

Marcus – I do think they have switched the order at the last minute after the cock ups earlier….. A grin from Gary and an “OK… Wow” makes me think they have…. Marcus’ VT’s just make him come across as a lovely lovely lovely guy with lovely teeth.

YES!!! This is dire. It’s too low for his voice…..  This is a very very average performance. He’s missing notes, and whoooping to hide the flaws… Tulisa correctly decided to go for it! the judges are rowing back and slagging him off…. “The soul in my baseline moved me” yeah me too…. AMBER

I expect a MASSIVE MASSIVE ramping now after the disaster of the first song…. Expect comparisons to the Beatles, Destiny’s Child, Westlife, Take that and the Spice Girls in the next eight minutes…. This has gone seriously wrong tonight, expect a MASSIVE U turn in minutes from now.

The Markets agree with Betsfactor. Harmony is restored (although let’s not talk about harmony), Little Mix back to favourites at a crazy 2.1.

@jamesmartin on Little Mix’s first performance “Red and Black again- very weak performance”.

Chris “Marcus’s second performance was very very bland”.  Well, he is very bland – but his VT’s tonight have made him look just like a lovely lovely guy.

Don’t forget I will watch the full show again, sleep, reflect, think, and produce some more ‘considered’ opinions by Noon tomorrow…  So say Hi to Betsfactor tomorrow morning.

Little Mix – More tears from Jesy. “The best part about it was meeting these girls…” Spot on Jesy. More fantastic over acting from Jesy.




With a tiny little bit of help from a backing track…..

“This group can change the world….” says Kelly.

Gary plays dirty tricks and you can tell that Tulisa is absolutely livid after that furious furious rant.
So what on earth has just happened tonight – what will this week’s bet be….. When I watch this back will I realise that LM are doomed? The Market are with me and keep them favourites at the moment…. 

I’ll be back in one hour with a bit of analysis and a more fuller piece by Noon tomorrow….. 

Need to think! Let me know your thoughts, richard@betsfactor.com


Posted on December 3, 2011, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.

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