Where we’re at….

This is being written on a train at 11am, so odds may have changed! You know what – it’s insurance time.

If, and only if,  you have a bet on Little Mix to win at crazy odds (I have 85-1 – the site tipped 75-1), I’m doing a

Special Insurance Bet – Little Mix to go tonight. (Betfair 16). I don’t think that is going to happen, but the site is going to do that, as an insurance. It’s only going to cost a point and would mean a 15 point profit and the site would end up 20 points in total if the worst came to the worst. It buys me time, and also on Tuesday (12 Noon) I might have something that might make you stop and think a bit more.

Other than that, we’re not going to recommend anything. This is just too difficult to call.

Misha – Will almost certainly go, but there is a lot of sympathy out there for her. I don’t think her odds at the time of writing reflect that it’s not certain. 1.4 is too low in my opinion. For instance, Kelly talking to the Sunday People today says the show hasn’t treated her well and that’s she’s a funny sweet girl. Gary gave her underdog status last night as well with his comments that there was no way she can win it. Her performances were pretty solid last night as well, despite rapping during motown and rapping during Pink.

Notice that Little Mix have not been allowed to rap a word since about show three, despite Kelly suggesting we see Jesy’s beatboxing last week. That will be for a reason – rap looks aggressive and it doesn’t have a wide appeal.

Amelia – She keeps on churning out 7/10 performances and quietly getting on with it. I also rated her a =HOLD= when we looked at Simon Cowell’s Portfolio on Friday. As I’ve explained today, I don’t think it will be good for the show at all if she wins, and will be bad for the long term health of the format. Also, she would become the first person in the eight year history of the show EVER to win it, having been in the bottom two at some stage. Personally, I think she’ll be nuked in the final, but these days anything can happen.

Marcus – What Gary didn’t realise is that Marcus NOT going last could have actually been a really really good thing for him. Have a re-read of this article to see why. Odds are now, he’ll close the show at Wembley. His final performance was pretty ropey and looking at a couple of polls, I wouldn’t say for certain that he’s definitely safe. It could be that Gazza’s nasty manipulation tactics were not liked by anyone past Runcorn. That said, Marcus is clearly a lovely guy, inoffensive, safe and just nice. Surely he’ll be OK?

Little Mix.  Well, if we weren’t so sure of their support, their treatment this week had a number of features of X Factor dumping. A story we don’t want to read, a bit of Red and Black, A judges row, One of the judges suggesting three of them aren’t great singers. That said, you can make the argument that they have had terrific support this week. The last slot, nice ballad to end the show, decent enough (but not perfect) lighting on set, unbelievably positive press coverage (front of Fabulous magazine last week, stuff in Look and Gratzia, centre page spread in the Sun yesterday about their struggles). Kelly Rowland saying they can change the world.

It’s a Little Mixed isn’t it.

What’s going to happen tonight? I’d say Misha going wasn’t absolutely certain, but likely. Other than that, I’m normally super confident with my predictions, but right now…. I haven’t a clue!

Tuesday at 12 Noon might make you reconsider things just a tiny bit.

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Posted on December 4, 2011, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.

  1. Not sure you’ve seen some of the work I’ve been doing to predict xfactor exits?
    http://anlytk.wordpress.com/

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