47 to WIN – The Eleven o’Clock Question

Every 11 o’Clock we’re going to re-evaluate the question.

 WHO’S GOING TO WIN?

If I could turn back time, would I not have given my final answer so soon? Is the historic announcement in Jeopardy?

We backed Little Mix immediately after the first live show to “outperform” expectations. And they have certainly done that. We suggested around Halloween that they could win it, and were worth a shot at 14-1 and with five contestants left, we backed the girls to win =FINAL ANSWER =.

I’m going to be very frank and tell you where I am at.

My heart says Little Mix are going to win it. There is so much love for them, the logical thing for the TV format / ITV is for them to win it, for reasons I’ve explained enough on this blog, none of the acts blow you away, so you might as well seize the moment and get a girl band to win the show.

The only time so far this series, when I haven’t followed my head, I got it wrong when I should have got it right. Craig’s treatment in week seven screamed negative negative negative in the week he went, but I ignored the danger signs because I was emotionally attached to Craig (I’d backed him to win, and put the whole of the Betsfactor brand, a brand with 50 days heritage, behind it). In a similar way Janet backers ignored the obvious danger signs when she was being nuked by the producers the week after.

I don’t want to hype this up (imagine, Betsfactor hyping something up), but I think I might have hit on a third mega subliminal thing, similar to RnB and Stars. I haven’t seen enough evidence yet and I am in the middle of hunting for it, I doubt I will have amassed enough before the final, but if I see two more instances of it, I will be blowing it open. And probably laying Little Mix. But i only have two instances of it so far (maybe 3), I need four clear ones to blow it open, and may never find them.

My head says they are “not being helped” at best. Here’s the evidence of the last seven days:

– No effort to kill the Zayn story.

– Red and Black lighting during performance one.

– Red and Black styling during performance two.

– A massive judges row and a clearly irritated Tulisa after song one.

– All the stars put on Marcus – They must be doing that for a reason.

– Little Mix being done first with the homecoming.

– The smallest circulation of the three papers getting the “Little Mix” home coming story.

– Little positive coverage of the Mixes in the Sun this week.

– The Duet hardly makes you go WOW! Alisha Keys meets Tulisa.

– James’ point that the Christmas number one might be a disaster so SyCo might want the most likely to be commercially successful act AWAY from the negative press that would create.

On the other hand you could say:

– They were so desperate to keep them, they switched the slots last week.

– That story about Little Mixes childhood struggles was fantastic in the Sun.

– The girls had very very positive VT’s last week.

– The girls also lead the Sunday mime.

– We speculated that Gary might have wanted to push Perrie for lead singer, simply to make sure the public accepted his single if they were to win.

– Tulisa CAN sing really well. Several friends of mine have said this too me, after I wrote my 1am knackered half baked piece yesterday (my point was more about how the other judges would handle the pressure).

In fact let’s have a look at Tulisa live:

(this was posted in the excellent Sofabet comments section)

I could go on and on and on.

But what the hell do we make of “Wishing on a Star“? If you’ve not read those four posts, go and do so now! Marcus’s treatment MUST be for a reason. Amelia is rapidly gaining underdog status, with accusations today that her mentor doesn’t like her.

We’ve got ages to deal with both these questions, and I promise I will tomorrow afternoon. We’ll look at the case for and against the other two. My opinion might have changed by then as well!

You wanted me to answer,  who’s going to win and if you could wipe out the historic announcement would you?

LITTLE MIX WILL WIN IT.  HISTORIC ANNOUNCEMENT REMAINS.

I think they will survive the dirty tricks and I think the public has enough affection for the girls at the moment to see them over the line. That’s my honest opinion, not just because I stand to win big cash if they do! I just don’t think Marcus has enough long term potential they need an act that won’t crash and burn. Many many male winners are crashing! I think the show badly needs a band to win it – A girl band winning- even better! Amelia winning would make a mockery of the entire series and would damage the long term ratings juggernaut of the brand. I think these are the key reasons. However, I am willing to be swayed and I have to be honest with you, the negatives for Little Mix are stacking up. If I spot the subliminal stuff I’m looking for tomorrow night I will probably be further swayed. Equally, lots of negative press tomorrow and I’ll be likely to be swayed. So I’m far from convinced and would NOT recommend backing Little Mix any more!! Stay out of this one for the time being! I should probably hedge that bet shouldn’t I…..

My Cowel%’s at the moment

LM 45%, Marcus 35%, Amelia 20%

NEXT – Betsfactor – NIGHTSCREEN/SCREAM – The Ten WORST Live Show Performances, counted down.

Coming Up – 10am – Paper Review

Can you help?

Firstly could you just do this quick two minute survey?

Second, MASSIVE COCK UP! I just thought no one was e mailing me – my e mail address doesn’t work!! If you’ve e mailed the @betsfactor.com address in the last couple of weeks, I won’t have got it – Please contact me HERE. These are the standards you have come to expect from the world’s greatest entertainment website. Do forward anything on you sent in the last few weeks! What a ****er.

Third, you can tweet @straffon if you want to keep it under 140 characters.

 

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Posted on December 9, 2011, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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