4 TO WIN – Things to Consider Tonight.
I was going to call this 75 to 1 reasons why Little Mix will win tonight. But then realised “Diana Vickers is backing them” was not a solid enough reason and that we’ve probably done enough.
Before you read this, read
The Narrative. Four girls who no one (apart from world class betting sites) gave a cat in hells chance of winning, just keep their heads down and work hard. They get abused by @chloe_babes_13_luvs_harry on popular social networking sites, but they bravely solider on. They start to deliver performances that people are impressed by. Groups never win the X Factor. GIRL groups never make it past week three. Surely, this can’t happen can it? They become the best of friends, they work hard and one by one acts around them start to fall down. And all the time, the public shapes their fairytale. Women around the UK realise that these people are women, like them! So start to vote for them. King Simon arrives on the eve of the magical moment and declares it would be a “historic event” if they won. This is it Britain, do you want the final chapter to be Marcus winning or four lovely girls, just like you, who battled against an evil Gary and @chloe_babes_13_luvs_harry? The public shape the fairytale. They feel in control. The narrative is theirs to write.
The Stats – I would argue that Marcus would appeal more to a wider demographic than Little Mix. The audience figures for the final Part One last night were disappointing for ITV (10.6m peak). I suspect we will see much stronger ones tonight, but the people who have voted so far maybe harder core X Factor fans more likely to vote for Little Mix. Those last few lines were inane speculation, based on “what I reckon”. But one or two polls I’ve looked at conducted online (caution with the demo of the sample yadda yadda) point to a Little Mix win, analysis of the social media see here, suggests they’ve done it. I would just make the point that those audience figures could suggest it’s still all to play for, if 3 million extra viewers, who might watch tonight, haven’t voted yet.
The Running Order – There’s been no confirmation yet of what the winner’s song is – everyone thinks it’s Cannonball, but that could just have been Amelia’s song! If the song is unfamiliar (a Barlow penned number) then going on second will be a MASSIVE advantage, since we will be familiar with the song and the chorus etc. If it is Cannonball, then it’s still good to go on second, for people who don’t know it. I have to say, Cannonball is a strange one, credible enough (as is the theme these days), but it doesn’t fully represent their journey. Only Matt Cardle has gone on first and won it (I think!). Normally the act that goes on LAST in the final and NOT LAST in the semi wins it.
The better act– The more I watch “You Got The Love” and compare it to “Hey Ya”, ditto “She’s Always a Woman” vs “Alisha Keys Medley”, I think Little Mix are the best of the two remaining. It strikes me as the fairest result. Does Simon want another West End Boy or a Girl Group to win?
Final Point to consider. The thing to think about above all else…..
Cowell’s showed his hand.
7pm – (Or earlier if I get them) Song Choices Analysed.
7:30 – GRAND FINALE – LIVE.