Morning. Overnight the full voting stats were revealed. Some really interesting facts. I’ve sort of cack handedly rounded the figures up and down to the nearest point. If it’s a 0.5 I make a random decision not based on any logic as it’s 1am and I just can’t sleep!

NOT A LANDSLIDE – The race between Marcus and Little Mix was nowhere near a landslide as the markets were suggesting. It was closer, but you could tell the producers thought they could do it. There was a sort of gritty focus from Tulisa last night! There’s loads of analysis we could do on all these stats and I am sure we will at some point, but Little Mix ended with 48%, Marcus 42%. We need to study these more carefully before we say it was a 6% win, because it’s a bit complex involving the vote freeze and so on. They are still 6 clear percentage points ahead. At the first freeze there was just 4.5% in it. Amelia also had 26% of the votes at this point, only 8 points off Marcus.  This explains why the producers were trying everything this weekend. Although, it serves them right for a hint of red and black in the final song – this was just reckless stupidity. Please treat the above with caution – I am too tired to work out how the 9% of Amelia votes counted blah blah. Off the top of my head, it looks like 2/3rd of the votes were cast AFTER 10pm on Saturday.

SEMI FINAL – Despite coming second Marcus was only 4 points off elimination. LM 34 / Marcus 24 / Amelia 21 / Misha 20. Amelia clung on by 1.2%. Marcus by less than 4%. It was very tight at the bottom. Actually, Gary’s dirty tricks galvanised the supporters of the Mix.

Let’s look at the rest of the series:

Week Two – Any old nonsense week – Janet 24 / Risk 11 / Sophie 9 / LM 9/ Misha 8 / Craig 7 / Marcus 7 / Johnny 7 / Sami 6 / Kitty 6 / Frankie 5 / Nu Vibe 3. Nu Vibe picked up 2.6% of the final vote in Week Two – half what Frankie got. Kitty was next bottom – despite being on last and doing that decent performance of Bjork. Janet had DOUBLE the votes of the second placed act, The Risk. (Janet 24/ Risk 11 / Sophie 9/LM 9 / Misha 8). Little Mix were doing OK – placed 4th at this point, albeit with Janet having nearly triple their votes!

Week Three – Rock Week – Janet 17 / Johnny 17 / Misha 12 / Marcus 11 / Risk 8 / LM 6 / Frankie 6 / Craig 6 / Sophie 6 / Sammie 6 / Kitty 5. Johnny ALMOST topped this poll with that Darkness song he did. Both scored 17. Misha comes 3rd DESPITE BULLYGATE! Which would explain why the producers were quite happy to run with that story again in the VT the next week. However with it being early days and every percentage point mattering (ie 11% is only 1 in 9 votes) it was still a bonkers decision in Week Four. It  would explain why the producers felt it safe to run the bully allegations again next week.  LM in serious trouble this week – they actually were 6th in the vote out of 11, but only 1% point seperated the ENTIRE bottom 6. The producers also got their way with Sophie on 5.8% third from bottom. It was very very very tight.

Week Four – Shambles/Halloween Week -Janet 15 / LM 14 / Craig 13 / Kitty 13 / Johnny 12 / Marcus 10 / The Risk 7 / Frankie 6 / Sophie 5 / Misha 5 Little Mix with that game changing ET performance, came second here, just one point OFF Janet! (Janet 15 / LM 14) This must have been the moment the producers went…. “WOW! Stick a cry VT and a decent performance and you get a second place. Let’s go for it!” Hence their final slot the week after. Craig and Kitty do very well as well, all acts on at the end of the show. Bullygate is a disaster for Misha – suggesting the actual stuff on the TV on the night didn’t do any damage, rather the resulting press coverage of it afterwards. She is at the bottom of the poll, with Sophie very close behind. Frankie escapes by 0.3%.

Week Five – Disco Week – Janet 18 / Marcus 16 / Misha 12 / LM 12 / Craig 10 / Frankie 9 / Johnny 8 / Kitty 8 / Risk 7. Marcus gets second spot here – Janet 18 /Marcus 16 / Misha 12. Misha’s decent performance and I think she has the VT about her mum this week (can someone remind me?), sends her shooting from 5% to 12%. Little Mix score 12, even though they don’t deserve it. The Risk crash out. Frankie clings on from the bottom three by 0.4%. Johnny was actually third from bottom over Kitty by 0.7%, but the judges got rid of him.

Week Six – Queen/Lady Gaga – Amelia 27 / Janet 17/ LM 15 / Marcus 13/ Craig 11 / Kitty 8 / Misha B 8 Amelia gets a stunning stunning number here. She scores 27% of the vote and tops the poll with her comeback performance. Janet is 10 points behind on 17 (Somebody to Love). LM 3rd on 15% (Telephone mash up). Misha and Kitty are clear of the rest and in the bottom two. AGAIN Misha is BOTTOM of the poll, only by 0.4%, but bottom – and saved. The producers sense blood and decide to go for Janet.

Week Seven – Movie Night – Little Mix 26 / Misha 22 /Janet 15 / Marcus 14 / Amelia 11 / Craig 11. Craig was bottom by 0.4% in this week. Amelia wasn’t far behind therefore. She falls from a 27% rating to a 11% in one week – this is the week they gave her Think! This is the first week the Mixs top the poll – Don’t let Go scores 26%. Misha  again gets a mammoth bounce trebling her score from last week (8% – 22%!),

Week Eight  – Guilty Pleasures .  Amelia 24 / LM 22 / Marcus 21 / Janet 18 / Misha 15.  Amelia, who was on last but had some weak songs and average VT’s and was in the bottom two the week before, TOPPED this poll. It was again pretty close. They took their chance to get rid of Janet whilst they could. You can also see why they are so keen to keep Misha, they know that she is the most talented – but crucially it’s been proven to them that she can get the numbers, if she does the right song and they get the VT right.

Half baked “middle of the night” he can’t sleep, conclusions:

* Marcus is your middle of the road, reasonable quality, X Factor contestant. His scores show that throughout as well. He’s just so consistently mid table, and so consistently average. Like a Fulham of the Premier League. Never hitting the top and never hitting the bottom, just trundling along.

* Misha and Amelia were very “yo-yo” contestants. They would have a good week and then crash into the bottom two and so on. Sofabet call this the “sympathy bounce” and I think you get a good indication of that here. Kitty rarely hit it off with the public though.

* When we thought Little Mix nailed it, so did the public.

* In the weeks after the first show, but before the show really gets going, (say Week 2,3 and 4) you have to be really careful, because the margins are so tight. Presumably they get less votes anyway, and margins are wafer thin – see week 3 for instance. These are weeks when you have to be careful, but there may be value in some long prices.

* Craig didn’t blow anyone away. Jar of Hearts was probably his peak, and that was before anyone could vote!

I’m sure there is WAY more, but that will do for now!

Please do do the survey if you could spare two minutes. 

NEXT – Tulisa and THAT Speech.


Posted on December 12, 2011, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: