Monthly Archives: October 2012

Oh Look!

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There might have been two or three other tweets mentioning other contestants, but let’s sweep them under the carpet.

Delight the Demo – Evidence

After an explosive Kye Fawkes Night last night, I’m churning out another Betsfactor Exclusive. Another half baked, badly written theory, full of holes and contradictions. Delight The Demo. Read this first. And Kye Fawkes Night is below if you missed all of that….

In week one, I agreed with commentators on the excellent Sofabet, that District Three were 100% lined up for a chop. There were loads of BRFAA’s, many of which we’ve been through before. But another BRFAA – Did the song “Delight the Demo”?

Demo: Early 20′s women with no more than two sexual partners thus far. Plus hormonal teenage girls.

Song: Tina Turner – Simply the Best. 1989 Smash Hit.

Song Demo: Male truckers and your dad who still thinks things were better in the 80’s

Does that song “Delight The Demo”(TM)?  Nope. They weren’t even born when that was a hit.

Next Week we had “All for One – I Swear”.

Demo: Early 20′s women with no more than two sexual partners thus far. Plus hormonal teenage girls

Song: All for One – I Swear

Song Demo: 30/40 something mums who remember this song in a mid 90’s summer.

Does that song “Delight The Demo”? Not really, right gender this time. Throw in a bit of red and black as an extra BRFAA. Bottom Two.

This week Madcon’s Beggin is FAR more likely to delight the demo, they throw in a decent production and District Three sail through.

What about Jarmaine.

Demo: OAP’s who want to see their grandson more often.

Does this appeal?

or this?

Contestants that have been in trouble, GENERALLY have failed to Delight the Demo. I would say MK1 were the exception, and personally, I don’t think the plan was for them to go this early.

I don’t think they wanted to get rid of Carolyn so early on – I think they just screwed up with an ill judged “diva” VT and couldn’t risk losing Rylan.

Carolyn Demo: People who like country music. So a 55 year old called Linda who lives in a bungalow and also a 48 year old divorced man called Tony who still believes that he could date Carolyn, if he just lost a bit of weight.

Song choice: A country version of this…!! Warning: This has disgusting explicit lyrics!

Do we think Linda and Tony have heard that before on Kiss FM?

Personally, I don’t think it was a deliberate nobble – I just think it was an error. She would have gone in five weeks anyway, but Rylan had to be saved at all costs.

So, what of Kye Fawkes….?

Demo:  A worried 30 something woman who hasn’t settled down yet and feels she’s stuck in a rut with her career. Let’s call her Hannah.

Song Choice: Last week Kye sang a bit of Dido. Hannah loved Dido and still has some of her albums. This week… erm. Something by a group called Swedish House Mafia. Do we think Hannah has a Swedish House Mafia’s album?

The song is so unfamiliar it barely registered in the Top 10 last year. He actually did a good version of it, but the song was so obscure that in Betsfactor Headquarters, a huge BRFAA was flying in the wind. The sirens then started blaring out when they decided to point out that he was incredibly flat, then the whole Betsfactor complex went into utter meltdown when they placed him on top of a BONFIRE! Hannah watched Kye, didn’t really have an opinion on him as she didn’t know the song and subconsciously didn’t really like the production. So she didn’t spend her 35p and actually quite enjoyed Ella who was on next.

If you don’t delight your demo in the first few weeks, you are in serious danger. There are plenty of examples from last year. I remember that hip boyband singing With or Without You by U2 for instance!

This theory is full of holes, for instance, these demos don’t all equally vote. Randy Tony never picks up his phone, the MK1 fans were all drinking WKD behind the back of ASDA etc etc, but it’s another Betsfactor Red Flag Alert Alarm to add to the pile.

I might write one more piece on something in a bit, so keep checking over the coming days – but then I will pop up on Sofabet as a one off guest appearance at some point soon. So keep checking there.

I can’t imagine this will be the last thing I write on Betsfactor this year!

Delight The Demo – ALL NEW BRFAA

So I need you to know that this theory is very half baked and not quite fully formed.

The way I am playing it this year is to look for the contestants with the most BRFAA’s (TM) (Betsfactor Red Flag Alert Alarm) and compare this with the price I see on the screen. Ridiculously high price, but one or two BRFAA’s BUY (eg James Arthur to be in the bottom two last week, very high price, but a couple of red flags means I privately shoved a couple of quid on just in case – we’re looking for value here). Loads of BRFAA’s and a reasonable price (Kye Fawkes) – BUY. Low price and not enough BRFAA’s (eg Christopher last night), SELL.

Now, this is a half baked theory and also it’s important to state, that I haven’t quite formed it yet.

I’m calling it Delight the Demo.

Products and services are aimed at demographics. Pepsi Max is aimed at 15-34 with a skew towards men. The marketing is about adventure, excitement and skydives. Axa Sun Lifes’ over 50’s plan is aimed at pensioners who like Michael Parkinson.

What are the target demos for some of our contestants this year?

Jarmaine. OAP’s who want to see their grandson more often.

Ella – An advertiser friendly, pleasant, generic 15-44 female, who goes to Zumba and wants, or has, a family.

MK1 – People who smash up bus stops.

Christopher Baloney – Your mum.

Kye Fawkes – A worried 30 something woman who hasn’t settled down yet and feels she’s stuck in a rut with her career.

Rylan – Anyone who visits sunbed shops at least once every seven days.

District 3 / Union J – Early 20’s women with no more than two sexual partners thus far. Plus hormonal teenage girls.

 

And so on.

If your song choice doesn’t delight the demo, it’s a new BRFAA.

As time goes on, once you have less people in the competition, it becomes less important. However, for the first few weeks, you only need 10% of the vote to guarantee safety – so just delight your demo (one that votes!) and you’re safe. Equally, fail to delight the demo and no one else is going to vote for you.

In 60 minutes – Delighting Demos – Delving deeper.

KYE FAWKES NIGHT – Barlow Burnt Out?

It’s Kye Fawkes Night on Britain’s Premier Betting Website. The world famous site that just can’t stop WINNING.  There’s loads to read – start from the bottom and work your way up…. Or start here. This is the least interesting article of the evening, so don’t start with this one, whatever you do!

So what’s going on with Gary Barlow then?

Why is the bar low with his acts? And why do I persist in using puns that don’t quite work?

I get the feeling that Tulisa and Danni Minogue were always fully committed to their acts. Others are less so. Louis at least learns his acts names, but was apparently sometimes in Ireland during the week last year, as for Cowell, well don’t forget that he would be on a jet to LA most Monday mornings to record American Idol and often couldn’t even name the members of his groups.

If I was truly committed to the X Factor and felt that I would have several acts left by November, I’m not sure I would launch a nationwide tour starting 13th November.

Now, admittedly these are midweek dates.

There are ALWAYS “I Quit Next Year” rumours about every judge. Indeed, it’s often so when they are fired by Cowell, they can say “well I was planning to leave anyway” and save face. Gary Barlow could easily juggle promoting a new Take That album next autumn with judging the X Factor, but it’s another thing to bear in mind. If Fox do ditch the X Factor USA (Not *that* likely in my opinion), then King Cowell could make a triumphant return, as “Gary wasn’t that committed a judge anyway and wasn’t happy with the pantomime the show had become.”

I’m not hugely persuaded by that argument, but it’s worth bearing in mind.

The producers could know Barlow’s days are numbered, so they might as well nuke his acts. Gary may feel he’s quite sure he’ll only have one act at most in play by the time his tour starts. And I think he could be right.

More likely is that they want to save Rylan as much as they can. If Rylan is up against a Barlow act, it can be credibly taken to deadlock, where he has a chance of survival, if he’s up against, say, Jade – it can’t without a massive bust up. So Rylan vs Kye is fine, ditto Rylan vs Christopher also. It also generates a heap of more press as Louis gets the blame again from Gary and more fury etc….

Other reasons could be that the acts won’t sell tour dates. Also, they simply don’t make good TV and people aren’t interested in people like Kye and Melanie, so why keep them in, just get rid of them and keep the ratings higher.

“Oh here’s Kye, he’s a bit dull and there will be an ad break on soon, let’s see what’s on C4”

Whatever the reasons, Barlow could concevably be actless by the real Guy Fawkes night. I’m not convinced that Kye is off next week, they often get off the bottom (see District 3 and Rylan) for a bit. But neither of his acts will make the final… Which is annoying for judges duets….!

Why not tell me your thoughts via the contact button.

You can follow me on Twitter @straffon.

NEXT: Noon tomorrow. A new “deramping” theory. Yes. BRAND NEW. Wow. I give you 7-2 tips and keep on giving.

Kye Fawkes Night. Boom.

KYE FAWKES NIGHT – Treason and Plot

It’s 11pm. On Kye Fawkes Night. We’ve just won AGAIN, an astonishing 7-2 tip meaning the site is rocketing up to an incredible 82.9 points or 8290%. Burning the bookies and back with a bang again. This is the site that told you to back sparklers Little Mix at 75-1 and 14-1 and 2-1. Red hot and truly incredible. I’ve been Catherine wheeled out of retirement for one explosive night, to point out that they have been trying to burn Kye, twice, live on TV so much so, they put Kye Fawkes on top of a Bonfire last night. 

If you’re late to the fireworks, read this  and then this and then this.

You’re probably thinking “all this is so obvious”. I agree. So here’s some more painfully obvious stuff.

In the past when Betsfactor has talked about subliminals we’ve talked about sneaky stuff like Wishing on a Star day.

I’m hardly being insightful when I write this next post….

If you hear the following, during a VT, from a much loved star, respected by millions, written many number ones and is one more charity fun run off a knighthood, does it portray positive or negative feelings?

– Flat, Flat, Flat, Flat.
– We’re a minute in, twelve flat notes.
– There were 32 flat notes in that performance in two minutes.
– That was awful.
– You’re going downhill.

It’s not even subliminal!!

Also, if Gary wanted a genuinely private moment with Kye and a Samsung tablet, he could have:

– Turned off his microphone.
– Asked the camera crew to leave.
– Picked any one of other 1439 minutes that day to have that conversation.
– Done it by Skype on his superb Samsung tablet.

I notice that we got a 20 minute piece on the exact reasons why Jade might give a duff performance. A UK medical expert on vocal chords, projects Jade’s swollen insides, in stunning high definition, on to our 42 inch screens. We got a day by day account of Jade’s struggle, a beautifully positive message of hope, written during the week on a Samsung tablet and a sombre piece to camera from Tulisa.

Kye had flu this week. Did he get similar treatment- in any sense of the word?

No, but just so you know, he did hit 32 flat notes in 2 minutes last Saturday.

Next, on the truly brilliant Betsfactor….

Midnight: The Bar’s Low. That pun only sort of works.

Noon Tomorrow: A fresh, very half baked theory, on a new way to nuke.

KYE FAWKES NIGHT – Fire Works

It’s Kye Fawkes Night on the World’s GREATEST TV Betting Site. We’ve just won our readers ANOTHER 350% return after tipping Kye to hit the bottom two at 7-2. You’re late, so read this and then this first!

I’m going to be a patronising parent now. This is for the people who STILL won’t accept that red and black smoky effects are “unhelpful” and that fire is dangerous.

Fire throws you into the bottom two….

And if they really want to get rid of you look out for the red smoke…

Even in a final, it’s always a good idea to throw in a flame next to a head if you don’t want someone to win….

There are PLENTY of other examples. But frankly if you aren’t convinced now, you never will be. And you should be ashamed of yourself.

Last week should have been a massive massive warning sign. What’s going on here…? Scan to 2m 10. I laughed when I watched this back last week.

So, we have one clue that they are trying to nuke Kye. We always like a few more before we make a tip here at the world’s greatest betting site. There were plenty more…..

Back to being a parent. Why do you guys never listen? Fire Kills.

More in 60 minutes. Now go to your room.

KYE FAWKES NIGHT – Burn Baby Burn

So I’m back for a 24 hour special on Kye Fawkes Night. Read this first.

With yet another correct X Factor tip. I was getting so frustrated reading drivel on blogs and no one acknowledging that these producers are up to the same old tricks and they know what they are doing! So, I stuck my neck out, came out of retirement and made you ANOTHER 350%, taking this site’s total winnings to 8290%. 

It really is this simple.

They put Kye on a bonfire. At the top of a bonfire.

They then pumped in loads of smoke so you could barely see him and had loads of burning residue all over the place.

They TWICE tried to burn him in two successive shows.

It was only an unlucky quirk that MK1 had slightly more votes that meant he wasn’t going home tonight.

THEY PUT HIM ON A BONFIRE. And they have done this before. AGAIN AND AGAIN.

Next – “Burn Baby Burn” at 10pm.

Then at 11 more reasons why he was headed for the bottom two….

KYE FAWKES NIGHT

It’s KYE FAWKES NIGHT

Coming up over the next 24 hours, why the world’s GREATEST betting blog was confident enough to come out of retirement and YET AGAIN call it correctly and win MASSIVE CASH SUMS for our delighted readers.

I’m a massive fan of the superb site Sofabet. Their writers are fantastic and hugely intelligent and insightful. The same can’t be said for everyone in their comments section. Some people even diss the world famous “Red and Black” theory….

So, coming up over the next 24 hours, this site chuggs back into life to show you what’s going on RIGHT NOW on the X Factor, where we’re at and how Kye was blown to pieces.

What frustrated me was that all the signs were there. All the signs. Over the coming hours I’ll show you what they were and how we’ve

SEEN IT ALL BEFORE!

Plus, I’ll blow open a potential NEW DOUBLE PRONGED STRATEGY to slash people off the show.

There will be heaps of:
– Hyperbole
– Reminders that we tipped Little Mix at 75-1, 14-1 and 2-1.
– Speculation dressed up as insight
– Mutual backslapping with Sofabet

COMING UP:

9:30pmSo obvious. The one painfully obvious thing that told me he was in trouble.

10pm Burn Baby Burn – How the X Factor has previous and how Kye went up in flames

11pmObvious subliminal stuff used last night.

MidnightSpecultainment. Why are they being so harsh to Gary’s acts?

Then, Tomorrow

Noon –  A new double pronged tactic they MAY be trying (too early to say) to bin off acts they don’t like.

PLUS LOADS MORE 

It’s KYE FAWKES NIGHT ON THE WORLD’S GREATEST TV BETTING BLOG…..

Hype

Countdown

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