This year’s Betsfactor has been very half baked, because I’ve had loads on and actually promised myself I wouldn’t write A THING! About thirty articles later I appear to be writing more!
Not a single penny of the Betsfactor Bank was risked on this final, it was too close in my mind. I just didn’t feel that there was really as huge a gap in the voting as the polls were showing. I really couldn’t call it…. but felt I should at least say something on finals weekend, so my money, albeit a very small stake, was on a shock tonight, mainly because I felt it was good value.
Yeah Yeah… but we all know what I would have done had I have been correct…!
Firstly, huge props to Sofabet who stuck their necks out and made a, correct, 1-2-3 prediction. Warmest congratulations to Daniel and the team. I wrote two articles for them this year, so technically I am part of the team.
They like to look at polling. This year it was of a huge sample, and was screaming James to win. Internet polls, which aren’t weighted of course, have predicted Christopher coming last on many occasions this series and last series’ YouGov poll incorrectly forecast a Marcus win (although YouGov are well aware themselves that a lot depends on the night and margins of error yadda yadda). So I was cautious.
I felt it was rather in the balance this weekend. James was given the better phone number and therefore much much better running order position. I talked earlier in the series about authenticity – this win gives the X Factor some much needed credibility back, which they will be pleased with. James also benefited from Tulisa style oratory at the last moment, a little bit of choking when he sang the winners single and the backing of a huge number of celebs.
The way that the show has treated James Arthur has suggested they could take him or leave him as a winner. He’s hit the bottom two (and now becomes the first winner in X Factor history to succeed despite doing so). They have given him some very very unhelpful staging on several occasions as well. Jahmene was the one contestant they never gave weak staging to. This weekend, Jahmene got the massive choir, the golds and whites, a Beatles song as his winners single and had the stronger back story. Also they could easily have implored “the whole of the north east” to get behind James, but chose not to. For the final, James got blues, solo staging, even a hint of red staging that hadn’t really helped others in the past and a really, fairly average, winners single.
Equally, you could argue all the religious undertones to Jahmene’s VT’s were very unhelpful, Swindon is hardly a place with a huge regional identity and a Louis Walsh endorsement is never useful (just ask Amelia Lily).
Here’s Louis’ reaction to the news, just three seconds after the winners name is announced….
James was the contestant I personally wanted to win, I think it buys the franchise some much needed goodwill. One of the three most authentic acts won it, so it’s all good.
In the next couple of days I might do a “what we got right, what we got wrong” based on the voting stats. We of course.