After our superb Jade Richards tip, we’ve steered away from tipping a winner of the show on Betsfactor. If you listen to the world class Betsfactor podcast I’ve always said “Nicholas” is the most likely winner; but I only put his chances of success at circa 40%. I was confident he would make the final and indeed rambled for 11 minutes on the first historic podcast as to why.

If you heard the podcast last week, you will have heard me hinting that I was changing my mind about Nicholas to win the show. I cited a second reason that I needed time to develop. As always Betsfactor over delivers… I’m now going to delight you, the reader of this blog, with THREE reasons why, right now,  I think Nicholas is the contestant to come second…


Last year, the Daily Star frequently and accurately revealed details of the public vote. Apart from one week… The leaks curiously stopped the week that James topped the poll.

When Christopher was winning, bosses seemed leaker than a sieve.

This year, the Daily Star has revealed ONE week’s worth of voting. Week Two. The week where they claim Nicholas topped the poll.

The Sun had a big front page story on Saturday, but curiously used the word “polling”, which could indicate that their data is not from the horses mouth. They suggest that Sam has been doing very well. I am not convinced that this is data that the producers are happy that the Sun have. I’m not even convinced that it’s an official leak from the show. When the leaks come out, they tend to be quieter, buried away in a paper which the customers don’t “read” as such, rather salivate over.

This leads me to wonder if our producer friends are only leaking to the Star when they have a result they don’t want…. If that is the case, then the Sun story is actually a nuisance, maybe from a third party, rather than something that they have authorised. The fact that it came out alongside helpful content with comments from each contestant, made it look more official than it actually was.

I suspect that SamB (or maybe Tamera) has topped the poll each week, apart from week two – when they had a result they didn’t really want  – and so they leaked it….

Once again, just a theory; but red flag number one.


In a very very interesting twist, props to commentator Jessica on Sofabet who pointed out here that Sports Personality of the Year will be on the other side, at the time of the final. This throwaway remark, buried away in a thread on Sofabet, made me bolt up in my chair… If my analysis was correct in 2011, the Sunday show is more important than the Saturday show in terms of votes. Scotland has two opportunities to be patriotic on Sunday 15th December. As a proud Scot which would you rather mark with your 50p phone vote?

It’s universally accepted that Tennis is an dreadful sport, with a crackpot scoring system, nowhere near enough ad breaks, and a complete lack of cheerleaders, playoffs and wildcard elimination finales. Unfortunately, due to the UK historically hosting the event and the subsequent tourism benefits, our national broadcaster decides to demote superb shows such as “Escape to the Country” and instead broadcast endless hours of grunting men hitting a ball over a net. We feel obliged to watch the British hopeful get as far as the quarter final, especially if it means that we can do two hours less work each day. Let’s say the average person in the UK is 48 and they’ve had to watch an average of 10 hours a year of this crap; each time ending with a  sense of deflation, inadequacy, a horror that license fee payers money is being wasted on tennis and a realisation that they’ve again wasted one of the few days the UK enjoys temperatures above 20c. That’s 480 hours of life wasting tennis.

Finally this year, a Brit, a Scot, gave us purpose. A reason to have sat through Sue Barker and to tolerate hearing a cockney who won tickets in a Robinsons Squash competition yelling “Caaammmeee Onnnnn Annndddiiieee” being rebuked by the umpire. A reason to be proud to be Scotbritish, a reason to hope, a reason to buy a new HD TV. He made watching 480 hours of disappointing, average and downright boring tennis at least partly worthwhile.

Andy Murray won Wimbledon. For Scotland. For Britain. Now, Scotbritland can honour him with the people’s award; an award won by historic names like Seb Coe, Bobby Moore, Henry Cooper, Kelly Holmes and David Beckham.

That is the reason he is 1/28 (about 1.03) to win Sports Personality of the Year. He’ll be only the fifth Scot to ever win it.

Now, compare that with a guy who has successfully sung Robbie William’s “She’s the One” in front of a live audience of 200 people and also accurately trotted out a soundbyte about how much winning a glossy karaoke competition would mean to him, at the age of 16. He’ll be honoured with an award won by Leon Jackson, Steve Brookstein and Joe McElderry.

On finals night, I think you need both core and satellite voters. The core will vote for Sam or Nic anyway, I just wonder if the Scottish satellites might be more interested in dialling for, and watching, Murray win, over a cute 16 year old? He needs a huge Scotsurge to help him to the Christmas single presses. I’m not convinced it will be forthcoming. After all, 480 hours of tennis needs a purpose.


When the producers threw their weight behind my 75-1 muffins, they realised that they could finally break the curse of the groups. There was a gap in the market and away they went. The show didn’t have anyone especially “world class”, so they could make it happen, with a few red and blackings along the way. This time around, it feels similar. Tamera is not taking off, so they might as well get an over to win the show. They like to airbrush out Steve Brookstein from the X Factor decade – so to give the impression that anyone can win the show, regardless of age/category and also to give Sharon a much needed win, they might as well make this the year that an over wins.

Even if that means one album, an appearance on the first live show of 2014, a second single that reaches No 32 and a Closer magazine article in May 2015  where Sam exclusively reveals she feels betrayed and is bringing out some new material “this autumn” on an “independent label”.

 Advantage Bailey.


Posted on November 20, 2013, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. 2 Comments.

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