TIP – EVERYTHING

Do you ever get one of those moments when it all just comes together. Maybe when you’re moving house, and finally amongst the chaos, everything is packed. Or when you’ve been working really hard on all elements of a project and finally it just works.

Tonight’s X Factor was quite an emotional one for the whole Betsfactor team watching. It felt that finally everything came together. All the theories. All those endless, wordy, badly written, overhyped “specials” days you’ve had to sit through, all the endless drivel. The 62 minute podcasts…. Having to click links to rewatch the quarter final in 2010.

I really hope I’ve cracked it, I really hope you’ve cracked it, as it was all on display tonight.

It was a eye watering combination of everything we’ve ever talked about.

E V E R Y T H I N G.

Please, please, please remember the disclaimer and that I’m the guy that thought Jade Richards would win.

Secondly, please don’t follow me into this bet – I’m just doing it because we have a decent sum in the Betsfactor Bank.

Thirdly, I’d say I’m over  33% sure on the second one but not 100%, therefore these odds are just too good. But I’m not certain. Deadlock scares me.

I MIGHT BE WRONG. I’ve been wrong many times as you know.

But, just for fun, as that’s all this site is,  I’m cracking open the Betsfactor Bank. Gambleaware.co.uk.

Betsfactor Tip  – 6pts TAMERA to be bottom two. (1.67 Ladbrokes)

Betsfactor Tip – 2pts TAMERA to be eliminated (3.0 Bet 365)

As ever on this messy noisy blog, if I’m wrong, we’ll brush it under the carpet and continue with the hyperbole. If I’m right… well, we’ll tell our grandkids about the second greatest kitchen sinking in X Factor history….

I might be wrong. I might have missed something.

Go back. Read this blog from the very beginning. Everything was there in those ten songs.

PS – The world’s greatest theory has TWO elements. Not one.

PPS – Only 50/50 about that Luke Tip now – but we made it, so let’s see what happens.

PPPS – Not sure about the other slot, but the usual tricks are out there for the mid tablers.

PPPPS – The Betsfactor Secret is coming

PPPPPS – If I’m right, get ready for “Everything” Day, coming soon to Betsfactor.

Betsfactor TIP

Let’s have 2pts on LUKE TO BE IN THE BOTTOM TWO (1.67 Ladbrokes).

Usual Disclaimers apply.

GIANT Betsfactor Podcast – Out NOW

Episode 11 of the world’s leading entertainment podcast is now available for you to download.

It’s a huge 62 minute epic show – because of the overwhelming tidal wave of listener reaction after last week’s bombshell show. 

We deal, in depth, with why Rough Copy hit the bottom two (with a couple of mentions of RnB). Stacks of calls on Tamera – is she toast? Plus who’s got the duffest songs this week, Richard gets a bit shirty and some major disagreement on the Nicholas Plan. Daniel Gould from the superb Sofabet.com makes his regular star appearance.

It’s a truly unmissable 62 minutes. 
If you “love the show” – we’d love your five star written reviews on iTunes and Stitcher radio to help us get up the rankings – and do subscribe as well. As ever, you can call the show’s voicemail whenever you like – 0161 81 82 800.

iTunes users search “Betsfactor”.

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Everyone else using Podcast apps/software – click “enter RSS feed” or “subscribe to feed URL” or similar; then enter:

http://betsfactor.libsyn.com/rss

Direct Download Link – If you want to listen now, without subscribing, then click here.

 

Events, Dear Girl – Events

Here’s how I see it. What do I know though?! I’d love your thoughts – 0161 81 82 800. Call the Betsfactor Podcast Voicemail 24/7.

The PLAN was a Rough Copy vs Hannah bottom two. With Luke as a back up.

Nicholas is ticking slowly down to 2nd; Tamera was meant to have her “moment”;  Sam is the winner.

Tamera blew it. She’s in big trouble, with both voters and the producers. They might use ‘Deadlock’, so that it’s “fair”, but hit the bottom two and the producers may not be responsible for their actions!

They can’t have her in the final, under any circumstances. If you want a good idea of the minds of the producers and Cowell – watch Louis. He gets it – and he’s annoyed. In a week or two, I’ll talk about EU fishing quotas on the blog. It’s game over.

Rough Copy were the target for the “surprise” bottom two appearance, so much so, I was piling on them after that performance… There were FOUR reasons why. If you don’t know the first by now, my blood pressure will go through the roof.

However, as happened at exactly the same point last year… Events, dear boy. Events.

This isn’t a tip (although pre-Tamera it was going to be), but I still quite like the look, value wise, of RC for the bottom two. But, it’s a coin toss now.

I was pretty confident during that ad break.

Then emerged a third candidate!

Events.

New Betsfactor Podcast OUT NOW

If you haven’t read “Advantage Bailey” do click on this.

We’ve been on vocal rest but we’re ready to go. Professional Gambler Daniel Gould from Sofabet.com and Betsfactor sensation Richard Betsfactor unite for the Betsfactor X factor Betting Podcast.

This week we look at Luke’s weird film, Hannah’s turn around, and what of a James Arthur endorsement for Tamera…? is it a good thing this week?

The odds for the bottom 2 are discussed and the latest song choices on this historic celebration weekend.

As ever we’d love your review on iTunes/Stitcher to help us get up the charts and do subscribe.

You’re hugely welcome to call us – 0161 81 82 800 – the Betsfactor Voicemail line is waiting for your call….

No direct download link this week – details of how to get hold of it here…

iTunes users search “Betsfactor”.

Stitcher Radio Search “Betsfactor”

Everyone else using Podcast apps/software – click “enter RSS feed” or “subscribe to feed URL” or similar; then enter:

http://betsfactor.libsyn.com/rss

 

ADVANTAGE BAILEY

After our superb Jade Richards tip, we’ve steered away from tipping a winner of the show on Betsfactor. If you listen to the world class Betsfactor podcast I’ve always said “Nicholas” is the most likely winner; but I only put his chances of success at circa 40%. I was confident he would make the final and indeed rambled for 11 minutes on the first historic podcast as to why.

If you heard the podcast last week, you will have heard me hinting that I was changing my mind about Nicholas to win the show. I cited a second reason that I needed time to develop. As always Betsfactor over delivers… I’m now going to delight you, the reader of this blog, with THREE reasons why, right now,  I think Nicholas is the contestant to come second…


VOTING LEAKS.

Last year, the Daily Star frequently and accurately revealed details of the public vote. Apart from one week… The leaks curiously stopped the week that James topped the poll.

When Christopher was winning, bosses seemed leaker than a sieve.

This year, the Daily Star has revealed ONE week’s worth of voting. Week Two. The week where they claim Nicholas topped the poll.

The Sun had a big front page story on Saturday, but curiously used the word “polling”, which could indicate that their data is not from the horses mouth. They suggest that Sam has been doing very well. I am not convinced that this is data that the producers are happy that the Sun have. I’m not even convinced that it’s an official leak from the show. When the leaks come out, they tend to be quieter, buried away in a paper which the customers don’t “read” as such, rather salivate over.

This leads me to wonder if our producer friends are only leaking to the Star when they have a result they don’t want…. If that is the case, then the Sun story is actually a nuisance, maybe from a third party, rather than something that they have authorised. The fact that it came out alongside helpful content with comments from each contestant, made it look more official than it actually was.

I suspect that SamB (or maybe Tamera) has topped the poll each week, apart from week two – when they had a result they didn’t really want  – and so they leaked it….

Once again, just a theory; but red flag number one.

SPORTS PERSONALITY OF THE YEAR.

In a very very interesting twist, props to commentator Jessica on Sofabet who pointed out here that Sports Personality of the Year will be on the other side, at the time of the final. This throwaway remark, buried away in a thread on Sofabet, made me bolt up in my chair… If my analysis was correct in 2011, the Sunday show is more important than the Saturday show in terms of votes. Scotland has two opportunities to be patriotic on Sunday 15th December. As a proud Scot which would you rather mark with your 50p phone vote?

It’s universally accepted that Tennis is an dreadful sport, with a crackpot scoring system, nowhere near enough ad breaks, and a complete lack of cheerleaders, playoffs and wildcard elimination finales. Unfortunately, due to the UK historically hosting the event and the subsequent tourism benefits, our national broadcaster decides to demote superb shows such as “Escape to the Country” and instead broadcast endless hours of grunting men hitting a ball over a net. We feel obliged to watch the British hopeful get as far as the quarter final, especially if it means that we can do two hours less work each day. Let’s say the average person in the UK is 48 and they’ve had to watch an average of 10 hours a year of this crap; each time ending with a  sense of deflation, inadequacy, a horror that license fee payers money is being wasted on tennis and a realisation that they’ve again wasted one of the few days the UK enjoys temperatures above 20c. That’s 480 hours of life wasting tennis.

Finally this year, a Brit, a Scot, gave us purpose. A reason to have sat through Sue Barker and to tolerate hearing a cockney who won tickets in a Robinsons Squash competition yelling “Caaammmeee Onnnnn Annndddiiieee” being rebuked by the umpire. A reason to be proud to be Scotbritish, a reason to hope, a reason to buy a new HD TV. He made watching 480 hours of disappointing, average and downright boring tennis at least partly worthwhile.

Andy Murray won Wimbledon. For Scotland. For Britain. Now, Scotbritland can honour him with the people’s award; an award won by historic names like Seb Coe, Bobby Moore, Henry Cooper, Kelly Holmes and David Beckham.

That is the reason he is 1/28 (about 1.03) to win Sports Personality of the Year. He’ll be only the fifth Scot to ever win it.

Now, compare that with a guy who has successfully sung Robbie William’s “She’s the One” in front of a live audience of 200 people and also accurately trotted out a soundbyte about how much winning a glossy karaoke competition would mean to him, at the age of 16. He’ll be honoured with an award won by Leon Jackson, Steve Brookstein and Joe McElderry.

On finals night, I think you need both core and satellite voters. The core will vote for Sam or Nic anyway, I just wonder if the Scottish satellites might be more interested in dialling for, and watching, Murray win, over a cute 16 year old? He needs a huge Scotsurge to help him to the Christmas single presses. I’m not convinced it will be forthcoming. After all, 480 hours of tennis needs a purpose.

OVER – THE LINE

When the producers threw their weight behind my 75-1 muffins, they realised that they could finally break the curse of the groups. There was a gap in the market and away they went. The show didn’t have anyone especially “world class”, so they could make it happen, with a few red and blackings along the way. This time around, it feels similar. Tamera is not taking off, so they might as well get an over to win the show. They like to airbrush out Steve Brookstein from the X Factor decade – so to give the impression that anyone can win the show, regardless of age/category and also to give Sharon a much needed win, they might as well make this the year that an over wins.

Even if that means one album, an appearance on the first live show of 2014, a second single that reaches No 32 and a Closer magazine article in May 2015  where Sam exclusively reveals she feels betrayed and is bringing out some new material “this autumn” on an “independent label”.

 Advantage Bailey.

== BREAKING == Sam Bailey on 35%

The front of the Sun tomorrow morning reports that Sam Bailey is polling over a third of the public vote “each week”.

It also claims that Nicholas is polling “less than half” that number.

If you listen to this week’s Betsfactor Podcast, you hear us start to change our tune towards Sam Bailey.

You can see the front page here.

Whilst we haven’t explicitly tipped Nicholas, we’ve consistently said on the podcast he seemed the most likely winner. If you listen to this week’s podcast you will hear us start to change our minds and start to sway towards Sam B… Looks like that’s could be correct! This front page suggests that she is way way ahead.

I did have some money on Nicholas, which I’ve just cashed out! As I hinted on the podcast there’s a second reason why I’m changing my tune on Nicholas – I’ll reveal more this week.

But as ever don’t pay attention to what I do…. Sam B is way ahead IF (and it’s an IF) the Sun is correct – but it’s a pretty bold front page splash!

= BREAKING =

You can hear the brand new Betsfactor Podcast here.

Another Betsfactor Podcast is LIVE

 Will Hannah get Satisfaction? What about Abi’s quiet meal? Are Diamonds the new STAR!? What of Luke’s Devon Busk?

This is the planet’s greatest X Factor podcast, we analyse everything in far far too much detail and discuss the odds to hit the bottom two. Your calls on the Sunday song, John Lewis and Rough Copy. Daniel Gould from the world famous Sofabet.com gives his expert insight.

We’ve had some funny reviews recently on iTunes – please do keep them coming. Your 5* reviews help us get up the charts in “New and Noteworthy”, if you haven’t yet, just tap the stars. Better still write a few words!

We’d also love you to call our voicemail line – ask a question, tell us who you think will win, react to the shows this week…. 0161 81 82 800.

Stitcher – Download here

AND

Owners of selected Microsoft Products can now download us in “Podcasts”.

iTunes users search “Betsfactor”.
Everyone else using Podcast apps/software – click “enter RSS feed” or “subscribe to feed URL” or similar; then enter:

http://betsfactor.libsyn.com/rss

Don’t want to subscribe!? What an astonishing decision – you can download this week’s episode here

ABye – Our Second Tip of 2013

Don’t forget the Betsfactor Podcast download details are here….

Time to crack open the Betsfactor Bank once more. This is the site that sunk 3pts on Jade Richards to win remember, so take everything on here with a pinch of salt!

There’s a wonderful piece that our very close personal friends at Sofabet have just written. I’ve stuck some thoughts underneath it – so go and read that!

Betsfactor TIP – Abi to be eliminated (Week 5) – 3.0 (Betfred) 2pts

I can only see 3.0 with Betfred now, if you’d have read a better site quicker you could have got 9/4, but we’ll take 3.0 as the price and stick 2pts on here to try and regain some of our initial pot back from our first tip!

I can make a much more compelling case for all the other seven contestants to survive – including Sam C, who they need for publicity/controversy as we discussed on the podcast. Read Sofabet for the arguments far more eloquently than I could put it. Only Sam C coming bottom could derail this, I can’t see anyone else being saved against Abi.

Fantastic News – A new Podcast

The latest Betsfactor podcast is out now. With discussion on Sam’s lack of a knockout blow and Abi surviving. Plus all the big band week discussion, your voicemails on 0161 81 82 800 and all the latest X Factor news.

The world’s greatest multimedia brand is mushrooming and the whole team is thrilled to announce we’re now available on:

Stitcher – Download here

AND

Owners of selected Microsoft Products can now download us in “Podcasts”.

If you’d like to hear the show next year, please do help us spread the word – we need your amazing reviews on Stitcher and iTunes to bump us up the rankings. This request doesn’t sound at all desperate or needy.

iTunes users search “Betsfactor”.
Everyone else using Podcast apps/software – click “enter RSS feed” or “subscribe to feed URL” or similar; then enter:
http://betsfactor.libsyn.com/rss

Don’t want to subscribe!? What an astonishing decision – you can download this week’s episode here

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